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Wednesday, November 5, 2008

So, what now?

A little jingle has been running through my mind this morning, to the tune of the song from the Wizard of Oz about the witch being dead, as sung by the Smurfs who inhabited Oz.


Ding, dong the Bush is gone,
Which old Bush? The 43 Bush.
Ding Dong the 43 Bush is gone.

George W. will likely go down in history as the worst President that we've ever had, certainly the worst two-term President. But that is for the historians and apparently most Americans can't wait until he's officially history.

So, then the question becomes, "What now?"

It's apparent that President-elect Obama is inheriting the Bush recession, as well as the Bush wars; so he will immediately be plunged into a crisis management role. I believe that his measured and thoughtful style will serve him well in that role. It will be refreshing to see and listen to someone who actually thinks before he speaks and doesn't always have that annoying little smirk on his face that Bush exhibited all the time

But, enough about the past. What about the future? We are likely headed further into recession and there is little that a newly elected President can do about that, other than do the things that are available to him to shorten the length of it and hopefully reduce the depth of it. At least he will have a cooperative Congress to work with as he seeks solutions to the morass that we find ourselves in right now.

On the local real estate scene things are really more dependent upon what happens to our auto industry than anything else. All the talk of an auto industry rescue and of a merger between GM and Chrysler still cares with it warnings about huge layoffs. If we are hit with 20-30-40,000 layoffs locally the impact will be devastating and our housing swoon will continue for years to come. Let's all hope that doesn't happen.

The bottom line for what's happening in Michigan is a fundamental reset of our economy and a huge net loss of population that is just beginning to unfold. We may not have to build another new house for a decade, if we lose the number of people that are projected to leave Michigan in search of jobs elsewhere. Perhaps, if the value loss continues in our housing stock, we will see private home ownership become so attractive that people in apartments and mobile home parks will take up the slack; however, the credit market will have to ease up quite a bit for many of them to qualify for even a low mortgage amount. Let's hope.

But, today is a new day, filled with Hope for Real Change; so let's sign our ditty about the mean old Bush being gone and hope that the Wizard who just came out from behind the curtain can help us get back to the America that we call home. Let's hope so.

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