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Wednesday, May 6, 2009

The end is near...maybe


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before Congress yesterday that he thinks the housing market may be at the bottom and that a turn-around in it and the economy in general could begin later this year; unless, of course it doesn't (which he said would be the case if the financial sector suffers another setback). Bernanke is getting as skilled as the old Fed chairman Alan Greenspan was at testifying at length before Congress and not saying anything that he could be held accountable for later.

Apparently Bernanke is able to see something in the arcane data that the Fed tracks that gives him hope. I'm reminded of the old Westerns where the Shaman medicine man tossed a bunch of chicken bones on the ground and proceeded to "read" what they told him. I suppose that's as reliable as asking questions of the old 8-ball. The 8-ball always had an answer like "could be", "maybe", we'll see or some other nonsense answer that could be interpreted in any way that you like.

Alan Greenspan used the technique of stringing together long sentences full of very arcane words when testifying, counting on the likelihood that none of the Congressmen and Senators wanted to be the one who said on camera, “I didn’t understand a damned thing you just said.” Of course both of them can count on the propensity of all of those in Congress to be more focused upon whatever political statement they want to make on camera at the opening than on what is said later, during testimony. After all Congressmen have lobbyists to help them write the legislation and tell them how to vote.

So the end is near…or not. We’ll know later this year…or next. And unemployment will stay below 10% …or maybe 11%…or not. Thank goodness we’ve got all of these geniuses running the show in Washington. Just think what a mess we’d be in if we didn’t have them to explain all of this stuff to us and make all of these great decisions on our behalf. We’re so much better off with them at the helm in this time of crisis…or not.

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