Reality-based hope for the future.

There are lots of stories, articles, blogs and other communications that based on the concept of hope. Having hope is a uniquely human trait. Hope combined with faith gives even the most downtrodden of people a reason to go on living. But, hope must also be based in reality. It is all well and good to say I hope I win the lotto; but the reality, which almost every player of the lotto begins with, is some cursory understanding of the odds against that happening. So, that hope is really a wish or a dream more than a real hope.

We are faced with much the same scenario in our lives and in real estate these days. People may say, “I hope things get back to normal soon”; where the “normal’ that they are referring to is the state that things were in 3-4 years ago – before the big recession. Well, that’s not any more real than hoping that you win the lotto. You can wish that things would go back to how they where or you may dream about how things were a few years ago; but none of that is likely to happen. In fact it can’t happen.

The current recession has caused such a fundamental realignment and adjustment of things that a return to the state of affairs of the earlier 2000’s is impossible. Many jobs are just gone. They will never return. Many homes are just gone. You’ll never get them back. Many savings accounts, and retirement accounts and college funds are just gone – they will never come back. The automotive companies in this new reality now hire new workers at $14/hour, not $24/hour and there is no going back.

For would be home buyers, new lending rules require that you prove that you can actually can afford the house that you want to buy and that you have some down payment funds and closing cost funds. There’s no going back to the good ole days of no-doc loans. Lenders, once burned by their own greed and stupidity, now demand more assurance (and more insurance) of the buyers ability to pay; even as they find new ways to package and monetize new portfolios of mortgages.

So where is the HOPE in all of this? I think the new hope is found in the young Millennial couple out looking for a first home in the range of $50-80K with 800-900 Sq Ft; rather than a $150K 1,500 Sq Ft first home. There is hope to be seen in the retiring couple who have taken the loss on their McMansion and downsized into a comfortable small ranch home. Hope might be expressed by the couple who were planning to move up to a bigger house, but who now are adding on to their current home instead. Hope that is based upon accepting the new reality is truly hope for a better future, not necessarily based upon material things, but a better life with the important things that we have – family, health and faith.

For many letting go of dreams of the past and accepting that this is where we are and this is were we must base our hope from is tough. Denial is a strong adversary to overcome, almost as strong as despair (which all too many people in denial slip into when they are finally overwhelmed by reality). The good news is that hope combined with faith can work miracles no matter where you start from. So, are things going to get better soon? I certainly have hope.