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Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Are we at the “Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda” point in this housing market?

From a story in CNNMoney, by Chris Isidore (04/06/2009) comes news that - Top Economists Say Recovery Has Begun.

Economic recovery is about making people feel more confident, says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com. Zandi evidenced increasing home sales and gains in the stock market are some promising signs that the worst is over and people will start spending again.

Robert Brusca of FAO Economics is predicting strong growth in the last half of the year and a quick recovery for the labor market. "You've lost 5 million jobs. It shouldn't be hard to put 2.5 million jobs back on rather quickly after you hit bottom," he said.

Joseph Carson, chief economist at AllianceBernstein, calls improving home sales, a rising stock market, and better-than-expected retail sales in February and March good signs of a turnaround. By the time President Obama’s stimulus package takes effect, the economy will be ready, he says.

Of course Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) economist is also optimistic that we may have reached bottom and that an upturn will begin in the second half of this year.

So maybe we’re at the “coulda, woulda, shoulda” point, you know that place that you look back on later in life and say things like, “I coulda bought Microsoft stock in 1984, instead of the GM stock that I bought.” Or maybe, “I woulda bought that Microsoft stock, but I just spent all of my money on that AIG stock.” Or perhaps we might lament, “I sholda bought that Microsoft stock instead of taking that hot tip on Lehman Brothers stock, instead.”

In real estate we are likely at that coulda, woulda, shoulda point. Mortgage rates have never been lower. Housing prices are at or near the bottom and there is lots of inventory to chose from on the market. In eceonomics that woud be called a tipping point - the point at which things changed. It is impossible to tell exactly when we will reach bottom or how fast we might see a recovery of home values, once the rebound happens. But, one thing is certain – lots of people will look back on this moment in time and slap themselves on the forehead and say, "I coulda, woulda, shoulda bought that house that I wanted back then." Don’t be one of them.

If you are I a position to buy, now is the time to act. Otherwise, I’ll be telling you, “you know you coulda bought that house for thousands less a little while a go, if you only woulda acted when I advised that you shoulda.”

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