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Wednesday, December 29, 2010

How low can we go?

I joke about Detroit being number one of so many bad lists and I’ve reported the tremendous loss of value that we’ve experienced locally; however, the latest Case-Shiller Market Report even surprised me. I had no idea we were so bad that the next worst city in the report isn’t even in view from our position. I remember once in high school when the track coach made me run in the mile run event. I’m not a distance runner…never have been and never will be. I was probably lucky that the leaders didn’t lap me out on the track. I was so slow that they were actually lining up for the next race by the time I got to the finish line. That’s sort of what the latest C-S numbers say about Detroit.

The C-S report shows how home values in various big U.S. markets compare to where they were in the year 2000. We all know that prices got wildly inflated in the mid-2000’s and then the bubble burst and they’ve been falling ever since in many places. Apparently some places have recovered better than others and clearly everyplace else has fared better than Detroit. Some places, like Los Angeles (174.05), New York (171.50) and Washington D.C.(186.67) are over 70% above their 2000 levels, which means that homes have appreciated in those areas by 74, 71 and 86% respectively.

Even cities like Las Vegas (100.97), Cleveland (102.20) and Atlanta (103.30), which took pretty good hits during the recession are back above their 2000 C-S value levels. And then there’s Detroit. According to this report, Detroit home values are at 69% of their 2000 levels. We’re back in the 1990’s somewhere, in terms of home prices. I’ve heard local assessors and appraisers place us back to about 1996 levels. That’s just depressing. Keep in mind that these numbers reflect values against 2000 as the ruler. They are still way below the market highs, which occurred in 2005-6. If current values were measured against that high-water mark Detroit home values would likely be down in the range of 40%.

About the only thing good that can be said about this report is that our bargain home prices are attracting more buyers to the area. I guess that’s understandable. Where else but Detroit can you find 1,350 homes for sale for under $10,000? It's not that bad out inteh burbs, but you can probably find over 1,000 homes for under $50K.

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