Boomers Aren't Choosing Urban Retirement

Part of the prevailing wisdom of the now-late-lamented housing boom was the theory that baby boomers were ready to trade in their suburban ranch houses for an urban retreat, thus saving themselves from lawn maintenance and automobiles.

Now many of the condos that were built in urban centers in anticipation of that happening are sitting vacant.

“Someone who grew up living in 2,500 square feet with a driveway leading up to the front door isn't going to downsize to 850 square feet until he's ready for assisted living," says Joel Kotkin, a scholar on urban development who wrote The City: A Global History.

"The new urbanists convinced the idiot development community there was going to be this massive move that never happened."Do these empty buildings further doom the future of cities?

Maybe not. "I wouldn't write off a storybook ending yet," says University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith. "It just depends on how many chapters it takes to get there."

Source: Orlando Sentinel, Mike Thomas (10/11/2009)

One of the obvious reasons in our area that Boomers aren’t snapping up urban condos (or anything else for that matter) is that they are trapped in their current McMansions. Boomers are the poster child for the mistakes that were made during the real estate bubble. They bought more than they could really afford, because they got those great ARM loans. Many refinanced every year to pay for other toys or expenses. They lived as if there was no tomorrow and for many there’s won’t be a tomorrow. These are the successful couples where one got laid off and now they’re losing the house. These are the parents whose kids where into everything and now they’re being forced to move into a rental unit or another neighborhood. These are the couples that are now experiencing some of the highest divorce rates, due mainly to financial pressures.

So, will some or many of these Boomers end up in urban lofts or 900 Sq Ft condos downtown somewhere? It’s not really likely. These are also the same people who are frightened by urban crime statistics and who shy away from diversity, rather than embrace it. There will always be a sub-group within the age groups classified as Boomers who have been, and will remain, adventuresome, open to new ideas and new people. They will migrate into the cities because it makes perfect sense to them. They understand and appreciate the “green” aspects of not having to drive to get to things. They embrace diversity and find great value and interest in the various cultures that make up the inner city. They likely have been long-time supporters of the museums and art galleries and theaters and other cultural amenities of the city and now they can live and be a part of that culture. The main thing that they will ask is that the streets be relatively safe and clean and that there exist some reasonable form of public transportation.

The issues of safety, cleanliness and transportation are still the biggest challenge for big city governments, especially in the Detroit area. I have visited many big cities that have vibrant urban communities – Boston, Baltimore and Chicago come to mind. Detroit has a long way to go on all of those issues. Detroit has somewhat put the horse before the cart by promoting the building of Riverfront condos before they have solved these other issues. Now those condos mostly sit empty while the buyers wait for the city to get its act together. The saying from the movie about baseball - “build it and they will come” – doesn’t work if they think they’ll be mugged if they come or if they still need a car to get everywhere.

Hopefully, Detroit and other local urban centers will see what they need to do and do it. Otherwise we may see Boomers and other coalesce around other town centers, but not our urban areas