It ain't over 'til it's over - Yogi Berra

From a press release by the National Association of Business Economists –

“The Great Recession is over,” according to NABE’s latest survey. “The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines.

The NABE panel upgraded the economic outlook for the next several quarters, compared with the previous survey,”said NABE President-elect Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. “Following a sharp 6.4 percent (annual rate) contraction in the first quarter of this year and another 0.7 percent drop in the second quarter, NABE forecasters expect real GDP to rise at an above trend 2.9 percent rate in the second half.

The more-than-three-year downturn in the housing market is very close to coming to an end, with substantial growth (from a low base) expected for next year. According to the survey, the key areas of concern involve the large increases in federal debt and unemployment rates that are expected to remain very high through next year. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 10 percent in the first quarter of next year and edge down to 9.5 percent by the end of 2010. (Ed. – In Michigan we are still above 15% unemployment, so we have a ways farther to go to get back to “normal”)

Inflation is expected to remain contained throughout 2010. The good news is that this deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the U.S. economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation.”

I have to respond with a somewhat muted “Yea!” to this article, since Michigan is so far beyond the rest of the country in terms of unemployment (over 15%) and still in the top 10 in terms of things like foreclosures. I certainly hope that the rising tide of things getting better elsewhere will raise our boat, too; however, as that great philosopher Yogi Berra said - "It ain't over 'til it's over"

It's too early to tell whether the state’s commitment to attracting “green industries” will provide enough new employment to replace the lost automotive jobs in Michigan. We are becoming a smaller state, with a different employment focus. Let’s hope that the other side of the fundamental re-set that we are going through in our state’s economy provides most with the ability to live well and prosper (or at least afford a place to live).