How's the market? Test you knowledge.

I just posted the updated sale numbers for May on my Move To Milford web site, but before you rush off to see them, let's see how good your feel for the market in this area is. Below are a series of questions that can be answered by looking at the stats posted on the Move To Milford site.

1. Match up the market area with its current statistic for distressed home sales and a percentage of overall sales, where "distressed sales" are defined as foreclosed homes and short sales -

Milford   Commerce   White Lake   Highland   West Bloomfield 

40%   68%   34%   56%   53% 


2. Which has the higher average sale price so far in May, Commerce or West Bloomfield?


3. Which market has the higher average cost per Sq Ft, White Lake or Highland?


4. Which market currently has the shorter median days-on-market (indicating quicker sales), Milford or South Lyon?

 Understanding the statistics within a market area that you may be looking in or in which you may be ready to sell can help you make a better offer or help you price you home better to the market.

In general the answer to the Title question for this post is that the market has flipped over to a seller's market, with many homes receiving multiple bids and prices holding fairly firm at or in many cases above the asking price. There is every indication that the pent up demand that has been building in the market is now showing itself; however, home owners who aer still underwater on their mortgages are holding back from the market causing a shortage of inventory. We are now down to about 4 months supply locally, whereas a 6 months supply would be considered a balanced market. 

Your Chamber of Commerce – an off-line version of LinkedIN

I was at a well-attended wine tasting event sponsored by the Milford Rotary Club last night and noticed that I knew about 1/3 of the people there, mainly through my Chamber of Commerce activities. That keyed of the thought that being involved with the Chamber is sort of like an off-line version of LinkedIN. Or maybe, said a different way, social media sites like LinkedIN are really an on-line version so of what people have been doing for a long time in organizations like the Chamber. The social media site allow for a longer reach, but at the sacrifice of the face-to-face time that events like this morning’s Coffee Club gathering provide.

I’ve had an account on LinkedIN almost since it began, although I run hot and cold on how often I visit or what things I participate in on that site. Like Facebook it has grown and morphed quite a bit from its original implementation. I kind of got away from LinkedIN a bit when I started using the ActiveRain site, which is a forum for Realtors.  The relationships that one might forge through LinkedIN, that could do you or your business good, is the same value that one gets at a smaller, more local level out of Chamber of Commerce membership. For some more local business people, like Realtors, plumbers, bankers, local store owners and others the value of the Chamber may be much greater than an account on LinkedIN.

The value of a Chamber membership probably varies quite a bit, based upon how active and how successful the local Chamber of Commerce is, in terms of on-going programs and member support. Here in the Huron Valley Chamber area we are blessed with an extremely creative and active Chamber staff and a very active membership. There are weekly events and networking opportunities sponsored by our Chamber – Ribbon cutting ceremonies at new businesses; Coffee Club gatherings every other Friday at one of the local Chamber-member businesses; after hours social mixers on a monthly basis; local referral groups that meet bi-weekly; and many other events throughout the year. Of course all of the events in the world wouldn’t lead to success unless the Chamber members actually participated and the members of the Huron Valley Chamber do.

I’ll admit to having been complaisantly ignorant of the benefits of the Chamber until a couple of years ago when I started attended Chamber events on behalf of The Digital Document Store, a local company for which I was doing some market development consulting. I joined on my own dime as a Realtor late last year.  The people I’ve met and the relationships that I’ve forged in those two years have been great. Many more people in my market area now know that I’m a Realtor and some have already given me business referrals. Not only that; but, I now know to whom to refer my friends and clients for most of the local goods and services that I get asked about.  I certainly can’t say that about people I’ve met through LinkedIN or ActiveRain or even Facebook.

So, I’ve become an Ambassador for the Huron Valley Chamber of Commerce with the mission to reach out to non-Chamber members and explain the benefits of membership to them. I also get to greet new members and help host some of the Chamber events. It’s a fun way to expand my local network even further. I can wholeheartedly endorse our local Chamber and recommend that you at least check out your local Chamber. You may be pleasantly surprised. Think of it as an off-line version of LinkedIN. Maybe that will help you understand some of its value.

Change of venue for May Historical Society Meeting

There's a change in venue for the Milford Historical Society meeting this Thursday, May 17. The General Membership meeting of the Milford Historical Society will take place this time at the Christ Lutheran Church ay 720 General Motors Rd in Milford. The meeting klicks off with a pot luck dinner at 6:30 followed by a short meeting and a program.
Our May 17th Speaker Ron Rademacher will be here to get us in the “Pure Michigan” mood.  Ron is a author of three books about out of the way places and small towns in our Great Lakes States.  He manages two sites about Michigan and produces a free monthly web magazine.  He does know his Michigan.  His presentation includes color photos, both educational and entertaining (Q & A and chat time will follow).

Come and hear about our lesser-known towns, festivals, unique shops, great food and the people who call Michigan their home sweet home.  Do I hear Road Trip anyone?  Websites to explore on your own without leaving your comfy chair:  www.michiganbackroads.com, www.upnorthmichigan.com and his web magazine:  www.travelinmichigan.com.

Pack your Pot Luck with your favorite Michigan recipes bring your questions to ask Ron and we will see you on Thursday May 17th, 6:30 p.m. Michigan time.

Milford Museum Open House - fun for the whole family

The Milford Historical Museum is now open for our 36th season. In honor of our opening the Historical Society will be hosting an open house from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. on Saturday, May 19th. The museum is located just one block east of Main St. at 124 E. Commerce St in Milford. Come enjoy the museum and then stroll around downtown Milford or stay for diner at one of our great restaurants.

This family friendly event will allow guests to visit our museum and see display's depicting Milford over the years. We will also be holding demonstrations inside and outside the museum. On our front lawn you will be able to see candle dipping, woodworking, yarn spinner, basket weaving, and blacksmith demonstrations thru out the day. A tent will be set up allowing visitors to see how Civil war soldiers lived during the war.

Visitors will see demonstrations on candle dipping, wood working, and a blacksmith. Also on hand will be the Huron Valley Numismatic Club that will be able to answer questions from coin collector enthusiastic. Inside the museum hear stories on Milford Civil War Veterans interned at Oak Grove Cemetery and learn customs from the Victorian Era. Hands on demonstration will take place in our log cabin display where kids will be able to make a corn husk doll and in the kitchen see how butter was made.
It will be a day full of fun activities for the whole family! Admission to the museum is free and open to all; you do not need to be a member to attention.

Join us for a fun filled afternoon!
I'm always amazed when I talk to life-long residents of Milford who admit that they have never been to the Museum. It's a fun place to visit and is full of interesting bits of Milford's history. This Open House is a great way to get acquainted with the museum and the kids will surely find interesting and fun things to see and do.

I can see clearly now...

Sometimes you can’t see yourself clearly until you see yourself through the eyes of others.” (Ellen DeGeneres) from my favorite daily blog – Jack’s Winning Words

The problem for many of us is probably actually being able to see ourselves through the eyes of others. That usually means that someone has taken the time (and risk) to tell you how they see you or something that you have said or done. Most of the time the kind of feedback that we need just goes unsaid and we don’t realize that something that we may have said or done was insensitive or at least not received as we intended. That can be particularly true in real estate where we really don’t have the kind of personal relationships with clients that would allow or encourage them to provide feedback on our behavior.

More than once in my real estate career I’ve heard back later, usually through a mutual acquaintance, that something that I did wasn’t well received by a client. Usually it had to do with appearing to be “pushing” the client to make a decision or seeming to be “taking the other side” in a deal. As I reflected back on those situations I can now see that what I thought was just trying to keep the dal moving along could have been perceived by the clients as pushing them. Real estate transactions are often full of emotions and being sensitive to the emotional needs of clients is something that I have to constantly work on, because it just doesn’t come as naturally to me as it should. I get wrapped up in the process details and lose site of the emotional side sometimes.

The other thing that gets in the way sometimes is logic. There are just lots and lots of places in a real estate deal where logic appears to be trumpeted – again by emotion. Sometimes I realize that I’m almost arguing with clients, especially young, first-time buyers, because I’ve taken the side of logic and they are coming from the emotional side. I have to step back and remind myself that I’m not playing a parental role in the deal, just an advisory role. I need to present them the facts and options without interjecting opinion, especially a parental sounding opinion.

So, as hard as it might be, it is good advice to try to step back every now and then and see yourself as others are seeing you. Sometimes you won’t like what you see, but then you have the opportunity to make corrections and be the person that you hoped you were. Here’s a little ditty to end these thoughts.

If I can understand how others see me,

Maybe I can become the person I’d like to be

Sometimes doing nothing is the best option…

There was a story this morning in the Realty Times real estate news feed that I get every day about the California Association of Realtors (CAR) opposition to the new law proposed by the California Attorney General which would make laws out of many of the provisions of the recent class action lawsuit concerning foreclosures (robo-signing and the like were the issues in the suit). In this case, while the CAR applauded the lawsuit and the settlement, it is opposing the new law. The logic is simple – the proposed law would effectively hamstring lenders in any future efforts to foreclose on bad loans and extend too wide of an umbrella of protection over so-called “strategic defaulters” and deadbeats. Another part deals with the eviction process for tenants in foreclosed homes and greatly extends that process. A similar law passed in Nevada and has effectively shut down the foreclosure process there.

Those seem like fair things to put in a law, so why the opposition? It’s that old legislation bug-a-boo – the unintended consequences of seemingly good laws. In this case the fear is that lenders, faced with onerous restrictions on their future ability to take foreclosure action, will shut down lending.  The argument is, “why would lenders take the risks involved in mortgages without the ability to take foreclosure actions at a reasonable cost and within a reasonable timeframe?”

This is probably a classic case of where doing nothing is the best course of action. Unfortunately it is not playing out at the Federal level where doing nothing is the order of the day. It is also playing out right now in California, one of the most liberal and activist states in the union. I suspect that most people might agree that lenders needed to be taken to the woodshed for some of their foreclosure practices; however, the thought of a bunch of legislators (no matter where) trying to figure out and put into law “what is good for us” is just scary.

Please help us all out here and do nothing. Thank you.

Don't believe everythng that you read...

The headline of the top story on Page 1 of the Oakland Press today was “Foreclosures Down 45%”.  

Of course it was very large type to draw maximum attention to that tidbit of information as a sound bite. The accompanying story talked as much about why the numbers reported by Oakland County are a more accurate reflection of the market that the numbers reported by regional or national groups. Apparently some of those “others” report every event within the foreclosure process as if it was a new foreclosure. That means that the delinquency notice, the Sheriff’s sale and the eviction notice would all be reported as foreclosures – three reported for the price of one. The Oakland County numbers only report the Sheriff’s sale, which is the best indicator that a foreclosure has indeed taken place.

I track and report on real estate sales in 8 local township/city/village markets and I report what I call distressed sales. These are sales recorded in the public records as either a foreclosure (where there was a Sheriff’s sale) or as a short sale (reporting of short sales is required by the local Multi-List Services). I can report that, in general, distressed sales are down; however, there are still a few Townships – West Bloomfield,  Highland and White Lake – that are still showing distressed sales near or above 50% of all sales, so far this year. The Lyon/South Lyon Market is the best in terms of low distressed sales right now.

Below are some distressed sales numbers comparing the most recent full month (April) over the last three years:

Milford – April, 2012 – Total Sales – 12, Distressed Sales – 5 ( 42%),  4 out of the 5 were foreclosures

Milford – April, 2011 – Total Sales – 17, Distressed Sales – 6 (35%), 4 out of the 6 were foreclosures

Milford – April, 2010 – Total Sales – 10, Distressed Sales – 5 (50%), 4 out of the 5 were foreclosures

Highland – April, 2012 – Total Sales – 21, Distressed – 15 (71%), 13 out of the 15 were foreclosures

Highland – April, 2011 – Total Sales – 15, Distressed – 8 (54%), 6 of the 8 were foreclosures

Highland – April, 2010 – Total Sales – 19, Distressed – 15 (79%), 5 out of the 15 were foreclosures

Commerce – April, 2012 – Total Sales – 40, Distressed – 22 (55%), 16 out of the 22 were foreclosures

Commerce – April, 2011 – Total Sales – 51, Distressed – 26 (51%), 22 out of the 26 were foreclosures

Commerce – April, 2010 – Total Sales – 30, Distressed – 21 (70%), 16 out of the 21 were foreclosures

These local market numbers don’t necessarily support the report that foreclosures are down, at least not in these three markets. They are up in Highland and about the same over the three year period in Milford and Commerce.

For data on all of the Townships that I track go to my web site www.movetomilford.com .

There are all sorts of regional and national articles and news reports that spout off numbers, usually in the headlines, that really don’t reflect the local market; so, stick with the reports that you’ll get on my site to be really in-the-know about our local markets.

May real estate stats now available

Many of you know that I track several local township real estate markets in my little corner of SE Michigan – Milford (of course), Highland, Commerce (including Walled Lake and Wolverine Lake), White Lake, Lyon Twp (including South Lyon), and West Bloomfield in Oakland County. I also track Green Oak, Brighton (including the city) and Hartland in Livingston County.
I’m well aware that some of the local papers provide weekly reports on what sold and for how much and that is a part of the story. As Paul Harvey might have said, you should go to the Move To Milford web site for “the rest of the story.”

Of course I report the listed and sold prices for the homes that I track, which are sales above $20,000 in each of the those areas. I also report the percentage of sold vs. listed, the Michigan SEV value and the ratio of sold price vs SEV, plus the days on market, the Sq Footage of the homes and the listed and sold price per Sq. Ft.

Those statistics are all good indicators of the state of the market and become more valuable if you can look at them over time. I provide running Y-T-D statistics for each market and up to three years of history (more for a few of the markets).

In addition there are market absorption reports, up to the minute market charts for things like inventory and days on market and more, all available at my two real estate Web sites – www.movetomilford.com and www.themilfordteam.com Check them out!

If you are in distress financially right now and at your wits end about what to do about your mortgage and your home, please go to another of my web sites – www.MIShortSales.com and read through the material there that discusses short sales as an alternative to foreclosure or bankruptcy.

The Doug Kilolingbeck Memoerial Canoe Race

This is an important upcoming Community Event -

Doug Killingbeck Memorial Canoe Race

Presented By Michigan Canoe Racing Association.

When: Saturday, May 12, 2012.

Time: 12:00pm until 6:00pm.

Where: Milford’s Central Park

This race is in memorial of Doug Killingbeck, who gave his life to help two drowning teenagers. Concessions will be available for purchase at the event with a donation to the Memorial fund. Prize money will be awarded to the top finishers in each Pro class.

Noon - Pro C-1 Race begins; registration opens at 11

3 PM- Pro C-2 Race

Business/ Amateur Class begins at 3:30 pm

Awards follow each race.

The MCRA is also raffling off $400 worth of merchandise

to participating paddlers!

Dealing with Google

I'm not sure if I'll have a problem with this blog after today or not. I have been inundated with stuff from Google telling me about all of the wonderful things that they are doing for me (un-asked I hasten to add) and requiring that I change from my simple Blogspot-only account to a full Google Account. I don't really want or care to do that. I don't need or want most of the other stuff that is involved with a full Google account; however, they are as insistent and I am resistant.

If you discover that I've suddenly appeared to have "gone silent" on this blog, it's likely that the Google gods have cut me off do to not adhering to their demands. If that happens, check on my web sites - www.movetomilford.com or www.themilfordteam.com for a link to whatever new blogging site I end up using.

Hopefully this issue with Google won't come to that. Today is the Google imposed deadline to do something. I choose to do nothing. So we shall see what happens.

Hapenings in Milford...

There's lots going on in the Milford area and there's a great place to keep track of community events that are coming up - the Move To Milford web site. The next big thing is Ladies Nite Out in MIlford, which is coming tomorrow night - April 26. This bi-annual event is always a fun time and this year there will be a shuttle available to transport ladies to the South Town Market in south Milford to enjoy the chocolates, teas and oither goodies that are featured there. Don't miss that, ladies. And check out the new Downtown Clothes store in the Center Street Mall on Main

I've set up a whole column on the home page just for upcoming community events, so go visit. I've also created a mobile version of the site that is oriented to the smaller screen of smartphones and makes it readable and easy to navigate. Check that out, too.

More on yesterday's topic...

Yesterday I wrote about how to interpret the news that one reads about the housing market. Perhaps the most misleading have been the stories that carried headlines like "Average Housing Values up 19% over last year." Many (if not most) people took may have looked only at the headline and come away with the impression that the price that people can expect to get for their house when they sell is up 19%. That is not only not true, but it really isn't even what the headline or the story actually says.

 If you read the accompanying stories to those types of headlines you will find that the headline was based upon the fact that the average of the sold prices for houses in the area went up 19% when compared to the averages for sold houses in the same area the year before. Isn't that saying the same thing? No. the averages being referenced take all home sales in the area into account. Those sales include short sales and foreclosures, both of which are at substantially lower prices than regular retail sales. As the number of short sales and foreclosures has drifted down as a percentage of all sales, the AVERAGE price for the total sales has gone up. The prices for non-distressed sales in many areas have bottomed out and have even started back in some places; however, the values of those houses has not jumped 19%. In places where we are seeing positive appreciation again, we are seeing 4-7% rises in sold values, not 19%.

So there is good news. The market locally seems to have bottomed out in most places and there are lots of instances where positive appreciation has begun again. But, if you read those rosy real estate stories and think that you can now somehow get a much higher price for your house, maybe even what you bought it for in 2005/6 – think again. That ain’t gonna happen.  If you bought your house during the peak years (2005/6) it has likely lost between 30-50% of the value that you paid for then, depending upon where it is located. So your market value for that $250,000 house is now likely in the range of $160,00 to $170,000. If you are lucky enough to find someone willing to pay above market for it, say $175 – 180K; you still have to hope that it will appraise for enough to justify that purchase price. Right now that is pretty much a fools bet, since appraisers are still leaning to the conservative side and many are still baking in further value loss into their appraisals.

My advice is to work with a good Realtor to establish a fair market price (one that an appraisal would support) and then decide if you can afford to sell at that price (or maybe decide to do a short sale at an even lower price). No amount of wishfully positive news stories is going to magically restore your home’s value to where it was 5-6 years ago or where you wish it was. If you can’t afford to sell, see if you could at least take advantage of one of the new government mandated re-financing programs. Some of them deal with the loss of equity and could put you in a much better position to sell later.

What to make of what you see, read and hear about the real estate market

We all see, hear and read stuff almost every day about the real estate market. You can't go to a party without encountering conversations about it and you almost can't pick up a paper or tune into a newscast without something being said - almost all of it different. What are you to make of that?

Well, for one you really need to pay attention to the source of what you are seeing, hearing or reading. Many news organizations tend to focus on the negative stories, because they seem to have more drama than the good news. There's nothing like a good tear-jerking story about yet another family being foreclosed and thrown out of their house to fill time on a slow news day. Then again some stories keep trumpeting the good news of the housing recovery - "home values raise again!" Of course, buried deep within that story is the "news" that the number home sale were also down again because of the lack of inventory on the market.

So what’s the truth? All of it. Average home values for sales in Michigan have been going up in this area for months, driven mostly by the fact that, with few houses on the market, sale prices have been bid up by multiple bid situations. Is that good or bad? Again the answer is, Yes. It's good for the sellers who are getting more for their homes (I've recently seen headlines that average home sale prices are up 19%); however, if you're a buyer there are fewer homes to choose from on the market. Rising average sale prices also do not reflect true positive appreciation in the market in general, although that too is occurring in some markets.

If you are at a party or gathering and happen upon a Realtor and ask "How's the market?", expect a positive answer - "It's great. We just need more houses to sell." That's also true. There are fewer Realtors left in the business these days and the ones that are left are quite busy. You may hear some grumblings from real estate people about the short sale process or foreclosure sales, but in general they will pitch a positive view of the market. And why not? Good Realtors can make money no matter what the market, if they can adapt to the needs of the market.

A good, honest Realtor would likely ask whether the questioner s a buyer or seller and adjust what they say accordingly. It's still a great time to be a buyer, in terms of the mortgage rates and lower costs of houses. Buyers can still find real bargains in the debris of the short sale and foreclosure market. The challenge for buyers right now is finding the right house in a very tight supply-side market. For sellers there is no magic bullet that will restore the value lost in this recession. Even if they get multiple bidders for their market-priced house they aren’t going to be made whole by the sale. Today’s market price is greatly impacted by foreclosures and short sales and then the sale must pass the appraisal test, too. Appraisals are running behind market pricing in most markets, which is a reflection of the overly conservative approach to risk that most banks have adopted since the housing meltdown.

So, “how’s the real estate market these days?” My answer would be – “It’s much better than it has been and seems to be headed in the direction of a recovery.” How long will it take to recover? If, by that you are asking how long will I have to wait to recoup my lost home equity; I’d advise you that it’s likely to take a decade or more to get back to the 2005/6 levels in our local markets. If you’re asking as a potential buyer; I’d say jump in now, before prices rise too much, but be prepared to be patient in your search.

So like Charles Dickens opened the Tale of Two Cities:

“ It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way - in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.”

Dickens had likely been to a bar and encountered a Realtor there.

Charting the distribution of real estate sales...

In a span of less than a decade the world of real estate was turned upside down by a recession so deep and so widespread that, like a tsunami, it overwhelmed everything in its path, destroying decades of value and toppling the myth that real estate prices always go up. Looking at the charts below it is easy to see that perhaps our staring point might easily be labeled “fat, dumb, and happy.” Real estate sales prior to the meltdown were essentially retail sales (91.5%), with little activity in the foreclosure or short sale areas and only moderate leasing activity.

When the stuff hit the fan, most Realtors didn’t know what to make of the changes and most missed the boat on foreclosures and short sales. By 2008 the market was dominated by “distressed sales” – foreclosures and short sales and the leasing side had been driven up by the need for all of those displaced people to find a place to live, while they rebuilt their credit. 

Locally the distressed sales percentages totaled over 50% for over a year, hovering around 60% for most of that time. This basically was how the market looked through 2010, with foreclosures and short sales both running at 30% of sales and retail down to 22%.

We started to see the market bottom out in 2011 and by the end things looked like the chart to the left. Distressed sales still make up almost 50% of all sales and leases are still going strong; however, the retail side of the business – what some are want to call “regular sales” have made a comeback and now represent 35% of all sales again. To be sure, at a combined 47% of sales foreclosures and short sales still dominate the market and heavily influence prices for the entire market. So, where are we headed? I guess it depends upon how far out one looks. For the next few years (2-3 years at least) we will be dealing with the aftershocks of the big recession – the release of foreclosed inventories by banks who were holding back as well as new foreclosures and lots of short sales. It will likely take a decade or more for values that were decimated by the recession to creep back to pre-recession levels and some may never make it back. Many areas locally lost 30, 40, even 50% of the values at the peak in 2006 and many homes will suffer from obsolescence or deterioration that will limit how much of that lost value is regained. 

When will the real estate market get back to “normal” for Realtors? An argument can be made that this is the “new normal” for us. I suspect the better question might be when will some level of stability and positive appreciation return to the market? I’ve seen various opinions by learned “experts” that seem to point to 2014 for a return to positive value growth, but then I wrote similar words in 2009 that pointed to 2011 for the same thing.

Many have been waiting for a magic bullet from the Federal Government, but so far most Federal programs have seemed to be shooting blanks. There is little political will in Washington to force some of their biggest campaign contributors to bite the big equity reduction bullet that needs to fired off.  So, we’ll continue to muddle along with dissatisfied middle class homeowners trapped in their underwater McMansions and more and more honest, hard-working, but tapped-out, people being forced into short sales or foreclosures. Sometimes being a Realtor is like being the weatherman who is to predicting rain on the day that you have an outdoor wedding planned.

Don't be timid about your goals

From my favorite blog – Jack’s Winning Words – come these two sayings, which I thought were perfect to juxtaposition.

“A goal should scare you a little and excite you a lot.” (Joe Vitale)

“To the timid and hesitating everything is impossible, because it seems so.” (Sir Walter Scott

We all start (or should start) each year with goals in mind. I think those goals need to be set so that they scare you a little, but let you get excited about the results of actually achieving them.  Many times, however, we get timid about setting our goals too high and end up not setting them high enough. There is little satisfaction in reaching goals that were set too low. Let’s face it, mediocrity is relatively easy to achieve; it is greatness that is difficult. If you don’t aim for greatness how will you ever achieve it?

So let’s end this little post with two more sayings to get the day started –

“You measure the size of the accomplishment by the obstacles you had to overcome to achieve your goals” -Booker T. Washington.

“Shoot for the moon.? Even if you miss, you will land amongst the stars” – Ralph Waldo Emerson.

Milford's French Connection

Another new business open this week in Milford - Le Rendezvous – a French Bakery and Bistro. This new bakery and eatery is the culmination of a dream for Donna Rizk, a French ex-patriot who now lives in the Milford area. Donna trained as a pastry chef in France and worked for a while at that profession before moving to the U.S.

Le Rendezvous will feature a variety of crêpes  for breakfast and lunch and Donna plans to have the bistro section open for breakfast and lunch, plus dinner for private parties or special occasions. In the summer she will have an outdoor seating area available. I’ll have more on Donna and her plans when I get the chance to interview her. For now, check out the pastries and the wonderful crêpes at this new Milford bakery/bistro.

Le Rendezvous is located on the corner of Main and Liberty, where the Sweet Life Bakery was located (right next to the Posh Salon), in downtown Milford. This is yet another reason to visit our wonderful little Village.

We are expecting three more restaurants to open soon – The Blue Grill, where the old Stucchi’s used to be; The Palette, where the old O’Callaghans was located; and Tequilaritas in the old Ruggles location. What a great place to live (and eat).

Growing Again in Milford - South Town Market debuts!

Today the South Town Market opened at 211 S. Main St in Milford and its opening is significant for several reasons.

First, it is a new business in what is referred to as "South Milford" the business district that is south of the Huron River. Ironically this are was the original business district for the Village of Milford, before the district shifted primarily to the north side of the river sometime in the mid 1800s.

In the second place it opened in the building that used to house the old Colonial Motors, which was a Milford institution for many many years; but, which failed in the recent recession, leaving a big empty space in South Milford.

Third, it is the entrepreneurial brainchild of Lisa Detkowski and her husband and houses a bunch of independent small merchants, giving each a space in which to do business. It truly is an incubator for several small start-ups. The focus is on locally made products, moistly foods right now, but scheduled to expand into many other areas.

In addition to the various displays of local food stuffs inside there is the Huron Valley Rustics furniture display, both inside and out. Lisa’s husband makes the furniture on-site in a rear work area, so you can’t get any more local than that. Check out the various pieces of “rustic” lawn furniture on display.

I wish the Detkowskis luck in their new venture and encourage everyone to plan to visit soon and often. Lisa says many more local artisans are lined up to bring their wares in soon. She is also planning a tasting bar for the specialty teas and baked goods that will be sold in the South Town Market. Check it out – Recommended!



For more on the South Town Market go to their Web site www.SouthTownMarket.com  or call Lisa Detkowski, the Marketing Director, at 248-714-5503, for information about how to get your local products into Milford's South Town Market.

So...How's the market?

As a Realtor I get the old “How’s the market?” question all the time. I’ve lately resorted to replying that “it’s all over the place.” I only track eight, relatively small markets, each comprised of the properties in a single township (there are some villages and small cities that are encompassed by the townships), and I see everything from a booming market in one township to a still depressed market in another and everything in between. Even the things that I want to classify as consistent across those markets are not really consistent.

South Lyon is a booming market, while Highland and White Lake are still both in the dumpster with still declining property values and a high percentage of distressed sales in their mix. The Milford and Brighton Markets (which really encompasses Green Oak and Hartland) are doing OK, but still show a higher percentage of distressed sales that is healthy. West Bloomfield is still experiencing a high level of distressed sales and lower sales overall that last year. The Commerce market is sort of transitional market between the higher density of West Bloomfield and the more rural feel of Milford (et. al.) to the west. Commerce is doing OK; but, sale volume is lower than last year and Commerce still has a higher rate of distressed sales than some of the better outlying suburbs.

One thing that I can say with certainty is that now is the tie to jump in and test the market, if you’ve been waiting for things to turn around. The value that has been lost isn’t going to come back quickly; however, values have stabilized and started back and there is a shortage of listed homes right now, so buyers are bidding up prices. Waiting isn’t going to significantly increase what you can get for your house, but it may become harder to sell when more homes are listed; so get in now.

The upgrade saga continues...

I've finally gotten all of the apps that I've been using on Windows XP installed on my new Windows 7 laptop and that required that I buy new 64-bit versions of some of them. I also discovered that about half of the printers that I used to be able to get to don't have Windows 7 drivers, so they are out of the mix. The hardware industry has got to love Microsoft for forcing hardware upgrades in other areas, such as printers, too.

Getting data over was relatively easy, using a large external disk as the go-between from system-to-system; except for old emails from Outlook Express. Getting them over and into Windows Live Mail is still a work in progress, it is do-able, but the process requires a lot of manual intervention, since the folder structure from OE doesn't quite come across.

There are also surprises galore when trying to use the new Office 2010 apps against the old Office 2004 data files. I'm not sure if the pain would have been less had I not skipped the Vista experience. The basic problem is that the apps people, in their enthusiasm to add new features sometimes obscure or remove the old features that I was used to seeing and using. I'm having a dickens of a time figuring out how to get the stuff that I do every month in Excel done on the new 2010 version. I can find most of the features that I used to use, but it takes a long while of sloughing through their new Excel interface to find them. My files from the old XP versions don't come over cleanly either. I'm not sure if there's a translation step that I'm missing, but it is frustrating right now.

I'm sure that once I get through this painful transition phase that I'll start to appreciate some of the new features; however, many of them I just don't need or want getting in my way. For now, in order to get stuff done; I've gone back to my old XP laptop. I can't let this upgrade just stop what needs to get done. So, for now anyway; the new machine is for testing and learning (when I get time) and the trusty old XP machine is for getting real work done.

Gettting something old on something new...

I got a new laptop computer a couple of days ago - a new, state-of-the-art, whiz-bang laptop with the latest Windows 7 operating system on it. I had held off as long as I could. Even though my old Windows-XP based laptop was still runing good, it was starting to show its age, especially on newer, more memory intensive apps. It had 1.5 GB of memory, which was a lot when I got it, but which pales next to the 8 GB of the new machine.
So, I've spent the last two days discovering which of my old apps will still run on theis new machien and which I have to buy again. Since this is a 64-bit machine, there are many old drivers and apps that just won't move over and run. At least it came with a stripped down version of MS Office on it.That wold have been another major $ hit to replicate.

Just moving all of the data from one machine to the other can be a fun challenge. And then there's the email and Internet bookmarks stuff. Bookmarks proved much easier to move that I had imaged; however, moving email files between my old Outlook Express environment to the new Microsoft Live Mail environment has proved to be a big challenge. Most other apps have Windows 7 versions, even if I have to pay for a license again.

Adding printers has been interesting, too. Fortunately I had upgraded my home print environment to a new HP OfficeJet Pro 8600 a couple of months back, so that worked out well. The offices that I work in during the week proved to be a different challenge, since they both have lots of older printers that don't have Windows7 drivers. I was able to find enough updated drivers for both sites to keep me going.

In addition to figuring out how to get all of te apps that I use regularly to work, I'm still trying to learn how the new MS Office 2010 apps all work under Windows7. What fun it is to upgrade when you've skipped a generation or two of Windows. I'll let you know how it's going from time to time.

Cabin Fever Sale Preview

The Cabin Fever Sale that the Milford Historical Society will be running tomorrow Friday, March 9, from 9 am until 4 pm and Saturday March 10, from 9 am until 2 pm will also have a preview sale today Thursday, March 8, from 4 pm until 6 pm. The sale is set up at 210 S. Main St in the old stone blacksmith shop across from the now defunct Colonial Motors location onthe south end of the Village.

There will be lots of stuff from estate sales - furniture, jewelry, collectibles and more - all priced to sell quickly. Check it out. It's for a good cause and, who knows, you may find that treasure that you've been looking for.

For more pictures and details on the sale go to http://www.milfordhistory.org/ and click on the Cabin Fever ad.

Cabin Fever Sale

I've been consumed by a big project lately and haven't taken the time to post here for a while (about a month). It's time to fix that.

The Milford Historical Society, for which I am the Secretary this year, is putting on a late-winter Cabin Fever Sale this coming week - March 9 and 10 - in Milford at the old stone blacksmiths shop at 210 S. Main St. That's just north of the State Farm office and across the street from the old Colonial Motors (now defunct) location.

The sale will feature lots of estate items from vintage furniture to vintage jewelry and lots of collectible figurines and pictures.

The sale runs from 9 Am until 4 PM on Friday, March 9th and from 9 AM until 2 PM on March 10th. For a $5 donation one can visit a preview sale on March 8th from 4 PM until 6 PM.

 For pictures of some of the merchandise go to http://www.milfordhistory.org/cabin_fever_sale.html

The sale will raise money to allow the Milford Historical SOciety to carry on it's educational mission of collecting, preserving and sharing the history of Milford. I hope you can go check out the sale.

Making a comeback, but ending up in a different place…

There is quite a bit of buzz today about the Clint Eastwood Super Bowl Commercial. The 2-minute spot was a follow-up to last year’s Eminem Super Bowl commercial for Chrysler. This one was also a spot for Chrysler, but it expanded the embrace of the message well beyond just Detroit, with Eastwood delivering a message of confidence that America will be back.

I certainly agree with the Easatwood  message. America is a resilient country and it will recover fro the present economic downturn. In fact there is ample evidence that the recovery is well under way – lower unemployment and increased manufacturing output to name two. However, those who naively believe that we will return to ”how things were before” are sadly mistaken.

In the midst of this recession the big “reset button” was pushed and whole new norms established that have nothing to do with how things were in 2005/6. We ain’t goin’ back there kiddies. Real estate values have been reset and will have to slowly grow their way out of the hole that they are in now. So called middle class jobs in manufacturing have been largely negotiated away in favor of two-tier wage systems and guaranteed benefits retirement is now considered a quaint thing of the past. We’ve been to Oz, but when we get “back” we won’t be in Kansas anymore either, Toto.

While one may not consider this to be a good thing, it was pretty much an inevitable thing. The whole ramp up to this bust has its roots firmly in the 1980’s and 90’s and the whole “me” generate thing that was going on back then. The balloon and bust of the early 2000’s was something that many saw coming for a long time, but few paid much attention to the alarms that might have been sounded. After all this was also the feels good generation and warnings didn’t feel good.

So now the question isn’t really how long will it take us to get back (that answer is we’ll never get back). The real question is, how long will it take us to adapt to our new reality and get on with life? I suspect that answer is that it will take us a generation. The current generation (really the so-called baby boomers) is setting on over a Trillion dollars in lost equity in houses that they can’t afford to sell. That isn’t going to change for at least 10 years. Until this overhang of loss works it way out of the system as foreclosures or short sales a huge part of the buyer/seller pool will remain frozen on the sidelines and the market will remain in the doldrums.

We are seeing better news in the market in terms of increases in housing prices mainly due to the shortage of available homes from those would-be sellers who are on the sidelines. This is the new normal and will be for quite a while, it appears.

So, yes America will recover, it will be back, just not back to the same place as before. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will be a better or worse place, just a different place. What we all make of that in our lives is up to us.

The Southeast Michigan Market

Every market is different, of course; so this report is local to the Southeastern portion of Michigan, which embraces Washtenaw, Wayne, Livingston, Oakland and Macomb Counties and is inclusive of several cities, including Ann Arbor, Warren, Troy and Detroit. The statistics that were used to generate the chart below were collected from the various MLS's in those areas and compiled by Real Estate One.


The chart shows average home sale values and clearly shows what happened to this market right after it hit its peak in 2006. Our crash was rather dramatic and reached an average of 40% loss in values, with some areas (especially the City of Detroit) going well beyond that into value losses of 50-60%. We believe that the market bottomed out somewhere in 2011, after five years of falling values. The chart shows a gradual return of value over the next five years.

It should be noted that this chart assumes a fairly brisk appreciation rate and there are many factors which could impact the rate of recovery of value. A financial meltdown in Europe, for instance, would certainly not help our economy and would slow everything down. The pace of recovery could still be impacted by many factors, but the point is that those waiting to see their home values return should anticipate it taking years, not months.

Other factors that will impact the pace of recovery include the speed with which the lendors recover from the legal issues of the Rbob-signing debacle and get back on track with foreclosures and the release of the overhang of foreclosure inventories. We still need to work that inventory off the books.

Finally there seems to be growing awareness in Washington that something needs to be done about resetting all of the underwater mortgages that are essentially damming up the normal flow of homes and home buyers in the markets. I'm not sure that there is the political will to do anything this year, with the election looming; so, perhaps that is a 2013 issue to resolve - depending upon the election outcome.

Is there a way to the middle ground?

The American political process is well underway for the 2013 elections and it is readily apparent that the two parties are being pulled more and more towards the extreme positions on what should be the fringes of their ideologies. On the one hand the so-called conservative party is moving rapidly towards a form of theocracy that we take such delight in lambasting in the middle east and on the other side the line between liberalism and socialism is getting more blurry.

The so-called “litmus tests” for both sides have hardened and pulled further apart. Both parties are acting to reign in or disown members who stray to far away from the purity of their strident positions. Positions on social and fiscal issues have become dogma. Out of this stiffening of resolve over positions has come paralysis in Congress and an increasing level of vitriol and finger-pointing.

Having lived through more than 6 decades and many changes in political power, I can state unequivocally that our current set of lawmakers is the worst that we’ve ever had and that the situation in Washington is at its low point. There is no middle ground left, no room to compromise. It’s not just the fault of the Republicans or the Democrats. In fact both must share the blame and both need to be replaced.

In other countries (certainly Great Britain comes to mind), when things get this polarized, new parties spring up to fill the void lef tin the middle. Perhaps it is time for that here. Let the religious extremists on the one side and the socialist on the other side take their parties down those paths to destruction. It’s time for a middle party, a party of moderation and logical compromise, a party more interested in doing what’s right for the country and all of the people than just for an elite or noisy minority.

I know that we have some alternative parties right now – the Green Party, the Libertarian Party and others – but we really don’t currently have a party with a mission statement (probably a platform in political terminology) to be inclusive and to work towards compromise for the good of all. Certainly the current Republican and Democratic parties can’t claim those attributes.

I can see names such as the America First party or the American People’s Party for this centrist new party. And, I can see the possibility of defections by legislative members from both of the extremist parties, as legislators whose beliefs and values reject being forced to toe the line of dogma that both of the traditional parties have adopted.

The interesting thing is that it would take only a very small number of defections or outright wins by centrist candidates to change the balance of power in Washington and force compromise and change. A big part of that change would be the need to negotiate, to compromise, to reach out to others to get anything at all done. Imagine if you will a Senate split 47-48, with5 new members of the centrist party or Congress with a relatively even split and 15-20 centrist party members. The only way to get things done would be with the help of the centrists or with a few defections by traditional party members with a center-leaning bent. Things would change.

As long as we’re imagining things, we might as well tackle how this scenario could happen. The main hold that the political parties have on candidate members is money (no surprise in that). So, now imagine that someone like Warren Buffet, or Bill Gates or some other Bazillionaire decides that enough is enough. Remember that Ross Perot took this route when he ran as a third party candidate. Now suppose that one or two or more of these superrich people decided that enough is enough and decided to provide the seed funding for a new centrist party. A billion here and a billion there and pretty soon you have real money and with it a real chance to elect those 4-5 Senators and 10 – 20 Congressmen.

If that happened, I suspect that this would become the proverbial snowball rolling downhill, gaining momentum through traditional party defections and continued election successes. Remember t6hat it doesn’t really take that many to break the hold that the traditional parties have on the legislative process. Changing the ingrained, old-boy rules that prevail in the Senate and House would take longer, but what counts is that the votes still need to be counted and add up to majorities to get legislation passed. As soon as you take away the purse-strings as a control mechanism things change.

So there you have it. A modest proposal in this new year to change things, We won’t need to “throw the bums out”, at least not all of them – just don’t elect any new bums on either side. Instead let’s elect people who care more about getting this country going again than testing the religious beliefs of opponents or challenging everyone’s belief in capitalism.

FInd your confidence...

“All we need is confidence.” (Charlie Brown). I like this little saying that was on the Jack’s Winning Words Blog on Thursday.


If there’s one thing that holds back many new agents it’s the lack of confidence in themselves. They tend to get into the mindset that they’ll make a fool of themselves in front of potential customers if they don’t know everything. So, that lack of confidence paralyzes them into inactivity.

In my mentoring role for new agents in our office, I try to help them see a way out of this dilemma by having them develop presentations (listing or new buyer) that focus more upon the strength of the company that they work for and the support team that is standing behind them. I get them to understand that it’s OK to say “I don’t know, but I’ll find out” and to explain how our company team supports new agents. It is relatively easy to turn what might have been an uncomfortable negative situation into a strength that actually benefits the client.

So the thing to do, especially when just getting started in the business, is to focus the client upon the strength of the company that you are a part of rather then just on your individual skills or experience. If you have confidence in your company and the people available to support you and answer questions for you, that confidence will show through in your presentations in front of clients. If you find that you really don’t have that support structure in your company, maybe you’re in the wrong company.

Happy Holidays to all!

There's good news and bad news in the chart...

It's feels like the market is comng back in the Milford, Michigan market area and there are statstics to prove that. When I recently went to the Altos Research site to look at the charts that they create for the markets that they track, I got the following chart for median home sale values and inventory for Milford Township and Village combined -




It's pretty easy to see that there is good news and bad news in this chart and that perhaps one is actually causing the other.

The bad news is that inventory has fallen off a cliff. People just aren't listing right now, mainly because so many are so far underwater on their mortgages.

As a result, there's good news - median home prices for homes that have sold are soaring. It's a classic supply and demand situation. The demand for homes in the Milford community remains strong, but there are few to choose from, so the few good ones that are on the market are getting bid up.

That's good news if you've been waiting to sell. Values won't recover all of the lost 30-40% that they lost over the last 3-4 years; however, they have started a nice recovery and they are headed in the right direction. If you have a nice home, in good condition, now is a great time to list. There is obviously less competition and there will not be continued downward price pressure. In fact, you may end up on the winning end of a bidding war situation.

Just in the statistics that I track at http://www.movetomilford.com, I can see the turn around. Prices in the Milford market were down below $90/Sq Ft for a while. Now they are back near $100/Sq Ft. That's still a far cry from the $140/Sq Ft average during the peak, but gettign closer to the long term average that we had achieved befoer the market overheated. A steady-state market in the $105 - $125/Sq Ft range is within reason and probably sustainable in this area.

Hope for Help in HARP 2.0

I suppose I’m a little like Linus sitting in the pumpkin patch on Halloween nioght awaiting the coming of The Great Pumpkin; however, I still have hope that at least one Federal program might end up doing some good for the housing industry – perhaps HARP 2.0.



The original Home Affordable Refinance Program, aka. HARP 1 – was a failure mainly because it failed to recognize the severity of the problem and had too many built in restrictions that limited the number of underwater homeowners who could qualify. HARP 2.0 lowered or removed those bars and should end up helping more homeowners. At least that’s the goal.


The major idea is to let homeowners who’s home values have sunk below what they owe on their old mortgages refinance with new loans at lower rates, even if the home wouldn’t appraise at the loan value in today’s market. In fact, the house won’t even ned to be re-appraised. The keys to the program are demonstrating the ability to continue to pay the new mortgage. You’ll note the “continue to pay” phrase. HARP 2.0 is aimed at people who have kept their current mortgages current, not those who are behind and headed for foreclosure. HARP 2.0 hopes to prevent foreclosures by providing some payment relief to those who have struggled but kept up payments, so far.


One key component to HARP 2.0 is that the mortgage on your house must be owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, which covers the majority of U.S. mortgages. Even if you send your money to another company called the ”mortgage servicer”, Fannie or Freddie may be in the background for your mortgage. To find out if your home qualifies, you can to go their Web sites – http://www.fanniemae.com/laonlookup/ or http://www.freddiemac.com/mymortgage/ and look up your address.


The program should be available now through most mortgage companies, so check with your preferred lender. If they aren’t supporting the program, check with a different lender.


So, maybe it’s not the Great Pumpkin after all; but, maybe it will help keep a few more homeowners who are struggling in this weak economy in their homes.

Taken’ it to the max in Texas…

You gotta love this story out of Tarrant County, Texas, as relesed by The Associated Press and rehashed in the Daily Realtor Magazine news feed.

Squatters in Texas are taking advantage of a loophole in state laws in Texas to move into $Million+ mansions. According to the story written by Yamil Berard which appeared on the Star-Telegram Web site on December 4, Texas state law allows squatters to claim property if no owner is around to challenge them. Texas squatters are apparently targeting vacant properties where owners have died or home owners are away because of a job or even illness. The story referrenced one incident in Houston, in which squatters threw away the owner’s belongings in a commercial garbage bin and moved in while the home owner was having chemotherapy (probably in a hospital).

According to the article. the laws in Texas allow a person to file a claim of adverse possession on the properties with the county clerk., much as one might do on a piece of disputed land or right-of-way in most states. The filing fee is a modest $16 and the filer must sign a pledge to keep the place up to pay property taxes and to live there for at least three years. Heck, why not, it's free!

Perhaps Texas, rather than California, is leading the nation this time on the housing front. What a great opportunity to solve the homelessness problem. Basically, if ever state had laws like Texas, the homeless could not only find housing, but they could live in the lap of luxury by squatting in vacant mansions.
Of course, we’d likely have to change the real estate model a bit. Maybe we could become “spotters” for vacant properties for some sort of fee. We’d have a list of homeless people (or maybe just people looking for a move up the real estate ladder) that we could keep an eye out for vacant homes. Apparently in Texas the owners don’t have to be gone that long, just gone and not around to contest the occupancy of their property. So, we could be on the look-out for people going on vacation and, BAM! We move a new family right into the house while they are vacationing on a cruise.

You’ve got to love the state that gave us George W. Bush and, now Rick Perry. In this case they are so far ahead of the rest of us in solving the housing problem for all Americans. Heck, this would even let us recapture the glory days of the early 2000’s – no money, no job, no problem, let us find you a place to squat. We could even run ads modeled upon the Publishers Clearing House ads - "Be on the lookout for the Squat Patrol coming to your neighborhood soon."

An idea that is finally catching on...

I noted this week, with some amusement, that Realty Times featured an article by Tanya Marchiol, who is said to be a real estate investing guru, which espoused the same Principal Reduction solution that I've been writing about for some time. Perhaps the idea will gain traction, now that a guru is behind it, too.


Tanya does a good job of explaining why investors should be jumping on the Principal Reduction bandwagon and why the banks and other mortgage servicers are holding them back. It's all about the money involved - the fees that the servicers are charging, which is much more if they can ride a property into foreclosure than they would be if the loan were redone to include a principal reduction or even in a short sale. She also re-stated a point that I made in my earlier posts that the banks can certainly afford to take the accounting hits on these underwater loans.

Until this issue is addressed we will continue to have a slow (in some placed stalled) real estate market. The people out at the end of these bad mortgages are the only ones in the chain who can't afford to take the financial hit. So, they are holding on to underwater properties, locked into place by the very mortgage products that were made to look, oh, so attractive a few years back.

Tanya did note that the lack of action in Washington towards this solution is also driven by money - campaign contributions to the major parties and politicians - to guarantee that nothing is done to endanger those fees. It will likely take an uprising of the people even larger that the Occupy Wall Street movement to ween our politicians from the teats of the big money banks.