Ending the year on a mixed note…

I updated my weekly stats data last night with what may end up being the final numbers for 2012, that is, if no more sales actually close today. I’m not sure how many Title Companies are working on New Year’s Eve day. The stats for the last full week of the year were very mixed. Overall in the nine markets that I track – Milford, Highland, White Lake, Commerce, West Bloomfield, South Lyon, Green Oak, Brighton and Hartland – distressed sales again exceeded 50%, closing out the year at 55% for the week.

 Those final week figures pushed the distressed sales stat for all of December up a bit, too; with the White Lake, Commerce and Hartland markets at or above 50% distressed sales for the month. The lowest in distressed sales for December was Green Oak at only 17% of all sales being distressed. You can see all of the markets December activity and statistics at www.movetomilford.com – just click on the “What have homes in this area sold for?” choice.

 I don’t keep running totals of distressed sales for the year, so I’ll have to go back and see how that totals up for the year for the markets. The sales for the whole year are there, below the current month’s numbers. I’ll be doing some looking back at those markets over the next week or so and try to put together some trend charts from the data, which of course I’ll share here and elsewhere.  

The chart of the distressed sales percentages for just the Milford market show how up and down the market has been all year, but still shows an overall downward trend –

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stay tuned for more charts and trends as I get time to do them.

It not new...we just forgot...again!

“There's a view in this country that everybody's going through what they're going through for the first time.” (Cokie Roberts) from the Jack’s Winning Words blog. That saying would go well side-by-side with the saying by George Santayana – “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

George Santyana was a Spanish philosopher, essayist, poet and novelist who lived in the late 19^th and early 20^th Centuries. His famous saying has been paraphrased and perverted many times and has lots of variations in use today. Essentially, Cokie’s remark is built upon the premise of that saying.

Were George around today, another of his sayings would be a perfect fit for the political fanaticism that we are witnessing in Washington – “Fanaticism consists in redoubling your efforts when you have forgotten your aim.” I think that both sides have lapsed into dogmatic fanaticism that has caused almost complete paralysis. Indeed members of both parties have forgotten their aim, which is to serve the people, and have instead taken up the banners of the most radical elements of their constituency and locked themselves into an ideological battle in which there are no winners.

So as we approach the Fiscal Cliff at the end of the year, another saying of George Santyana might serve well if perverted a bit. George said, “When men and women agree, it is only in their conclusions; their reasons are always different.”  If you substitute Republicans and Democrats for the men and women in that saying it make perfect sense as we watch the “negotiations” that are going on in Washington. Both sides agree that they would prefer to avoid taking America over the cliff, but for completely different reasons and with different approached to a solution.

Case-Shiller confirms market direction is UP!

The latest Case-Shiller Report, released by S & P/Dow Jones is a good tool to confirm the direction of the market a couple of months back. The latest report (see graphic below) confirms that the real estate market continued to recover nicely through the end of October. The report itself contains sales data that supports that conclusion from all of the major markets, with only two major markets - New York and Boston - reporting negative appreciation. In general the numbers say we're back to the 2003 level as far as average housing prices go. That's good news, but keep in mind that 2003 was a good 2-3 years before the peak in values, so we have a ways to go to get back to break even for those folks who bought at the peak, in the 2005-6 time frame. Also remember that the run-up was at a very fast pace and the recovery is occuring at a more traditional appreciation pace.

Case-Shiller just confirms what I've been reporting for a while now and what the data that I collect about the nine markets that I track are showing. In fact, some of our local markets are dong much better than the trends shown in the Case-Shiller charts. In addition to the Average Home Sale Price that Caase-Shiller focuses upon, I look at some other key indicators of market health. I report the average and median SEV multiplier (a unique Michigan thing - the State Equalized Value for homes is supposed to equate to 1/2 of it's market value, although it is seldom right on that mark) for sold homes, as well as the average and median sold homes cost per square foot. I believe that those are very important market health indicators for our area. Most area sales are running at 2.2 to 2.4 times SEV right now and several markets have broken back through the $100/Sq Ft. mark (the Averages  were down as low as $80/Sq Ft in most areas at the bottom of the market).

If you'd like to read the entire Case-Shiller Report, click here. And if you are really into statistics and want to see what our market has been like, go to MoveToMilford.com and click on the What have homes in this area sold for? choice.

This is good news for would-be sellers. The market is coming back! If you haven't had an updated Comparative Market Analysis done lately you may already be missing the boat. Locally, we are in a Sellers' Market, with sellers getting top market prices and selling good homes very fast. If you're in Milford, Highland, Commerce, White Lake, South Lyon, West Bloomfield, Green Oak, Brighton or Hartland call me for a free Market Analysis - 248-763-2497.

For buyers there are still good deals out there; but, you've already missed the boat in terms of the market bottom; that actually happened mid last year. Waiting longer only gets you higher prices. The mortgage rates are still low, so get in the game. Let me find the right hose for you and still get a good deal.

New sales stats and market comments

I've posted the second to last set of real estate sales statistics for the year at my Move To Milford web site. The next post will wrap up the year and I'll try to look back and see what the trends have been. The market is general has been improving, with s0me stats like average home sale values being dramatically impacted by the lack of inventory right now.

There are so few good homes on the market that it is a sellers' market right now and buyers have to be prepared to make offers immediately and may face multiple offer scenarios in many cases. In a more balanced market sellers are advised to be prepared for a 4-6 month wait to sell. Right now 4-6 weeks is more like it, with really nice, move-in-ready homes going even faster.

The market is so "tight" that interest in building has picked up and I'm getting more and more inquiries about vacant land, suitable for building. Almost all of the local developments that had stalled out during the recession are building again. Most builders have adapted to a shift in buying patterns towards the lower end by building less expansive and less expensive new homes.

This is normally a slow time of the year for real estate sales and this year is no different, but for different reasons. There are actually lots of buyers out looking; but, with little to see right now they are just stacking up and getting frustrated. That is especially true of buyers who aren't the types to make quick decisions. Taking the time to ponder a decision right now means that the house probably won't be there by the time you decide.

So, if you're a buyer, you need to be ready to make a decision; be pre-qualified, so that you can make a serious offer; and be persistent in your efforts. If you are a would-be seller, now is the time to at least find out if the market has come back enough for you to sell. People who haven't had a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) by a real estate professional within the last 2-3 months are seriously out of date with the market. CMA's cost you nothing and can give you a good idea about whether now is the time for you to act. It's certainly a good time to have a house on the market.

 Merry Christmas everyone! Stay tuned for the end-of-year report on all of the real estate sales data in Milford, Highland, Commerce, White Lake, West Bloomfield, South Lyon, Green Oak, Brighton and Hartland. I look forward to kicking off the New Year - The Year of the Seller!

Michigan December Market Report

 



 

 

 

Michigan Monthly Market Report - December 2012

Traditionally, this time of year sales activity slows, but

not so much this season. Although sales will be less than

peak spring and summer months, they are unusually

strong for this time of year. Our annualized sales rate is

actually higher now than it was this past spring,

meaning we are carrying even stronger buyer demand

into the New Year than we did this year (and this year

was pretty strong).

 

Listing inventories continue to shrink, as the number of

new salable listings entering the market is not keeping

up with the number of homes being sold. All indications

point to 2013 being a strong year for home values with

both Median and Per Square Foot prices up 20%+ over

the past year, pending sales up 38%, home inventories

down 25%, Days on Market down 24% and foreclosure

sales down over 50%. The combination of great rates,

prices and six years of pent up demand is causing an

extra boost in buyer demand. Because of that, we

expect appreciation rates to be strongest over the next

18-24 months, and then settle back down to a more

normal (but still strong) activity level. Which means an

expiration date is on that sweet spot of both strong

appreciation and low interest rates, so anyone who is

anticipating selling in the next 3-5 years should be

evaluating their housing needs in 2013.

 

Buyer's lending standards continue to be a challenge, so

here are some simple suggestions to help minimize

mortgage loan frustration:

1. It's never too early to get pre-approved. Preparation

is key to a successful transaction.

2. Once pre-approved, don’t open new debt.

3. Large deposits are watched very closely. Deposits

going in checking and savings accounts need to be

accounted for (large means anything over $500).

4. Bring everything asked for by the Loan Officer up

front at the time of application.

5. As underwriters check and double check files, be

prepared for additional conditions after approvals and

some details needed within the last few days of the

transaction.

6. Often, if the transaction has been in place longer

than 45 days, ask which information will need to be

updated before closing.

 

November sales were our best of the year, adjusted for

the season and not surprisingly so was our market
share!

If you would like more information on the market, like

to list your property, or want information on any
property with any broker, you may call or email at any
time.

Have a wonderful Holiday Season,

Norman, W Werner

Put my team to work for you
P: 248-763-2497
normwerner@comcast.net
http://www.normwerner.realestateone.com

New real estate sales data posted

I got around to updating my sales statistics on my web site www.movetomilford.com for the nine local markets that I cover yesterday. I track sales in Milford, Highland, Commerce, White Lake, West Bloomfield and Lyon townships in Oakland County, plus Green Oak, Brighton and Hartland Townships in Livingston County. I chose those Townships because they are where I do the majority of my business.

I had posted a blog last week that has proven to be not true. I stated that all of the Townships that I track had dropped below 50% of distressed sales for the month. Actually, White Lake Commerce and Hartland were back over 50% last week; with White Lake back up to a whopping 79% of all sales being distressed sales for December.

I'm not sure if this is just a case of some of the so-called "shadow inventory" being released in White Lake or what. There has long been a rumor that an inventory of foreclosed, but not yet on the market homes was being held by several of the big banks. The reasons varied, but usually had to do with the banks reacting to the robo-signing law suits and deciding to withhold foreclosed houses until they had a clear line of title and better procedures worked out.

So, at least in those three Townships there is still quite a bit of opportunity to find a distressed property at what is usually a great price. If you stumble upon one that is also in good condition it is a find indeed. Distressed homes - those being sold out of foreclosure or in a short sale - are usually anywhere from 15 - 30% below the average market value.

So go to my web site - www.movetomilford.com - and click on the What have homes in this area sold for? There is data posted there for the entire year and for prior years back to 2007 for most of those Townships. You can find such valuable indicators and the average and median cost per square foot for sold homes and the SEV multiplier. Those two numbers along will allow you to at least get in the right ballpark when trying to determine what the probable market price of a home in those areas might be.

The importance of your credit score...

A recent blog post by George Souto, a Connecticut mortgage broker, on the ActiveRain site discusses the  important role that credit scores are playing these days in the mortgage process. See the post at -

http://activerain.com/blogsview/3530908/credit-scores-are-playing-an-even-larger-roll-in-the-mortgage-process

I get people all the time who call me and ask to see houses. When we discuss their readiness to actually buy a house it sometimes comes out that their credit history is so bad and their credit scores are so low that they really can’t afford anything right now, much less the nice homes that they wanted to go see. I try to be nice about telling them that it would be a waste of their time and mine to look now, before they get their credit issues resolved.  The mortgage people that I normally recommend can provide them with advice on how to repair the damage that they’ve done to their credit score; however, there is usually no way to dramatically shorten that process. Time and many paid bills must pass before the impact will be seen in an improved credit score.

Credit scores are important for leasing, too; although more important is the credit report itself, which hopefully shows a good pattern of paying bills on time recently. Many people have experienced some life event, whether it be an illness or death in the family, a layoff at work, a divorce or something that caused them credit issues and may have cost them their home. That doesn’t mean that they can’t be good renters, while they rebuild their credit. The key, again, is being consistent with paying current bills on time.

It is good advice to actually check your credit report at least once a year with each credit rating company. They are required to give you one free credit report a year. That report does not usually also have the credit score that they would give to a company inquiring about your credit, but they will normally sell you that for a small fee (just resist all of the other stuff that they’ll try to sell you, too).

So, be ready, whether you are looking to buy or lease and go get your credit report and at least one credit score. Read it over and make sure that you challenge any mistakes that you find, to get those blemished off your credit history. Then, you might want to compose a letter (if you are looking to lease) explaining what happened to put you in the situation that you are in and how you are working your way back to good credit. A landlord will want to understand that and feel good about your current ability to pay the rent.

Keeping the Dream Alive in the Huron Valley...

Today I posted information on my web site www.movetomilford.com about some of the upcoming events in the Milford area in observance of Dr. Martin Luther King Day, which is January21, 2013. The Huron Valley Martin Luther King Jr. Day Committee has already kicked off the events by opening registration for entries in the art, writing and performance categories. Each of these categories will judged, with awards for the best entries to be announced during the celebration on the 21^st.

There will also be a parade down Main St in Milford on the 21^st, with the line-up scheduled for 1 PM at the Prospect Hill Shopping Mall. The march will proceed up Commerce to Main St and down main street to Central park. Dr. King’s famous ‘I have a dream…” speech will be played as the marchers go down Main St. You can read more about the planned activities and the work that the Committee does throughout the year by going to www.movetomilford.com and clicking on the link to about information concerning the celebration.

It is interesting to me, as I looked to see who was behind the Committee, that Dr. King’s Dream is today being kept alive and championed mainly by people too young to have been there when the events happened. They are championing the principals that Dr. King espoused, and not just honoring his memory. That is important; because that means that the real content of Dr. King’s Dream is living on and not just the context.

 I am old enough to have witnessed the events of that era, albeit mainly from the comforts of my home on the TV. I saw the coverage of the marches and the loosing of the dogs upon the marchers. I saw Governor Wallace standing on the steps of the Alabama University, trying to deny entrance to a black man. I saw the coverage of Dr. King’s famous speech on the Capitol Mall and I witnessed the coverage of his death.  Those were trying times and times that challenged all Americans to embrace the inevitable change that Dr. King was fighting for during those marches and while giving those speeches.

It is a sad commentary that many of the most important events of the era were the deaths of the people fighting to do the most good and make the most change in America at the time – John F. Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. represent three of the most important. I certainly hope that groups like the Huron Valley Martin Luther King Day Committee keep reminding us all of the Dream, as yet not fully realized, that Dr. King had for an America in which the color of a man’s skin would have no impact or influence on his ability to realize his full measure of the American Dream. I’ll see you on Main St on January 21^st.

Compassionate Conservatism at work...

As reported on the CNN Money site - Mortgage giants, Freddie Mac (FMCC, Fortune 500) and Fannie Mae (FNMA, Fortune 500), announced today that they will suspend all bank repossessions beginning December 17 and December 19, respectively, and will not resume the evictions until January 2, 2013. "The holidays are a chance to be with loved ones and we want to relieve some stress at this time of year," said Terry Edwards, Executive Vice President of Credit Portfolio Management, Fannie Mae.

So, in addition to a New Year’s Day hang over you can pack up and get out. Somehow this seems less genuine that I’m sure that the Freddie and Fannie folks meant it to sound. I guess there was not good day on which to start evicting people again. Soon they’ll be able to throw them out and over the cliff, too. And you thought it was the Grinch that stole Christmas. Move over Grinch, Aunt Fannie and Uncle Freddie are here with a Christmas tease.

It’s too bad that the “Let Them Fail” crowd has only been successful with letting individual homeowners fail and not the big banks and shadow-banking institutions that helped cause this mess. Now, in my area, the debate is whether to let the City of Detroit fail and go into bankruptcy. To add to the drama, the City Council is fighting a rear guard action to prevent the state from rescuing the City; so, I guess they’ve joined the “Let Them Fail” crowd, too.

It’s Day 22 until the Boehner Recession. It’s too bad that Rodney Dangerfield isn’t with us anymore. He could have reprised one of his movie roles and done his famous triple-Lindy dive off the Fiscal Cliff before hitting the bottom of the empty pool below.

Lost in the noise of Thelma and Louise Redux...

As the melodrama in Washington unfolds and we towards the so-called Fiscal Cliff other important legislation gets lost in the noise. One law critical to the real estate business that is due to sunset on January 1 is the law that gave relief to those going through foreclosures or short sales from being taxed on the loss that the bank took. Most people can probably recall that banks were issuing 1099 Forms to foreclosed homeowners for that difference, essentially treating  it as if the foreclosed homeowner had been handed the difference and now owed taxes on it just like ordinary income.  The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 gave relief to those foreclosed homeowners by preventing the banks from issuing those 1099’s – at least the banks that took Federal TARP money during the bail-outs.

This legislation, flawed though it may be, was critical to supporting the housing recovery by allowing short sellers to get out from under their old houses and not strapping them with an additional debt that would prevent them from buying a new smaller house that they could afford. Other laws that rode along with this law added provisions for a modest move-out payment to the short-seller to help them relocate. Some people objected to that, saying that it encouraged the bad behaviour that got the short sellers  into that situation in the first place. I don’t agree with that view.

So, now this legislation is due to expire at the end of the year. There was legislative support  to renew or extend the provisions of this legislation; however, that got caught up in the panic and noise about the Fiscal Cliff and is now buried somewhere in Washington, along with many other critical bills. The National Association of Realtors is lobbying as hard as it can to get attention back on this legislation, so that it doesn’t expire, but the drama over Fiscal Oblivion continues to dominate the Washington scene.

There is a sizable (and growing) contingent in Washington that now seems to believe that we should just go ahead and go over the Fiscal Cliff and then sort out which things really need to be fixed and which can just be allowed to happen – sort of like Thelma and Louise driving off the cliff at the end of that movie and then checking the back seat to see if there are any parachutes that they might use. There was a reason that they didn’t show what happened next in that movie! Some things can’t just be “fixed” later, if they’re allowed to happen.

Housing market speeding back to ”normal”…

A recent blog post on Trulia by economist Jed Kolko makes the claim that the housing market is 47% back to “normal.” Kolko uses three primary measurements of the market as indicators of its state – new housing starts, existing home sales and the delinquency (foreclosure) rate in the groups of markets that he tracks. Kolko compares these numbers against their worst state at the depth of the recession and their best at the pre-burst peak of the market. The data in Kolko’s blog are from October and from very reliable sources. His percentages of recovery are basically percentages of the change from the worst to the known best state for those three indicators.

According to Kolko, new construction is 41% back to normal, up 47% year-over-year against last November. Existing home sales he sees as being 59% back to normal and delinquencies/foreclosures are 41% of the way back to normal at a current rate of 10.64% nationally. He has some interesting charts in the story that show the trends, starting with his Housing Barometer. Click on the link in the first sentence to read his blog article and see the charts.

In this area, I just posted the November home sales numbers for Milford, Highland White Lake, Commerce, South Lyon and West Bloomfield Townships in Oakland County and Green Oak, Brighton and Hartland Townships in Livingston County. You can see that data and the 3-5 years’ worth of data that I’ve been collecting for those markets on my web site – www.movetomilford.com. I think I’m going to have to start charting my data, too. It does make it easier to see the trends. I’ll start that in January of 2013 and go back a couple of years just to get the trend lines going.

Just based upon my own observations and the data that I collect and post, I can also see the recovery happening, albeit a bit slower in some markets, but quite rapidly in pockets locally. I also look at the trend in home sale values and the sold price per square foot, which have been rising in all the markets all year. Foreclosures and short sales are down to below 50% in all of the markets that I track and down close to the national average in some – good news.  

Currently slowing the recovery a bit locally is the lack of inventory. Too many people still believe that they are underwater on their homes, so they are still hunkered down waiting out the market. For many the time to at least take a look at where they’re at in terms of market value has arrived – they just don’t know it yet. I’m pretty sure that we aren’t 47% back to the pre-bust “normal” of 2005-6, but our market has markedly improved and it’s definitely time for people to leave the bunkers and test the market.

The local economic news is also improving, so the economic risk factors are down for making a move, too. My advice is to at least get an informed opinion from a Realtor about what you house is worth today, so that you can make intelligent decisions about whether to go ahead with retirement plans, move-up plans or whatever plans you have that involve making a real estate change. Email or call me 248-763-2497, if you’re in this area and let me take a look at your home-value situation – you may be pleasantly surprised.

Create some value today...

From the Jack's Winning Words blog comes this thought - “Any experience can be transformed into something of value.” (Vash Young)

The real estate business that I'm in provides plenty of expereinces every day. No two deals are exactly alike, yet they exist within a framework of rules and laws and ethic codes that allows them to be accumulated. It is through that accumulation and reflection upon the expereinces that knowledge is gained and from that knowledge, over time wisdom is the eventual "value" that is created.

Everyone has the opportunity to look at their expereinces and try to understand them in order to add to their knowledge and gain wisdom. Some do not take advantage of those opportunities. Often egos get in the way and differnces in experinces are discounted as "not the way we do it." Failures are also great opportunities for gainign knowledge; however, some refuse to deal with failure in a positive way; prefering to find someone or something else to blame for the lackof success. For those people age does not bring wisdom and for themthe phrase "there's no fool, like an old fool" was created. An old proverb also covers them - "A wise man can see more from the bottom of a well than a fool can from a mountain top."

So, create some value today. Take some time to think about the expereinces you have had - good or bad - lately and see what knowledge you can gleen from them. Over time the storehouse of those expereinces that have been pondered will add to your wisdom and that will make you a valuable person to know.

Time to come up for air...

Some whales can remain submerged for long periods of time before coming up for air. The longest recorded whale dive on a single breath was just under two hours.

Many homeowners who found themselves under water on their mortgages have been holding their breath and trying to wait out the market. Some turned blue and went under in foreclosure. Others surfaced with a short sale breath. Many are still down there thinking that they must stay under longer. That may or may not be true anymore.

The real estate market has come back strong in some areas. The recovery has been spotty and in pockets. there are still area that had fallen so far that they'll take extra time to recover. Some areas truthfully may never really recover; however, there are pockets, like Milford, where the return of value has been fairly rapid and dramatic. Much of that quick run-up of prices can be attributed to the lack of inventory in the current market. That is being caused by those people who have their heads down and are still holding their breath.

The truth is that it is time to surface and take a breath, look around to see if your home is in one of the recovery pockets and maybe get on with life. If you haven't had a Realtor do a market analysis lately you may be holding your breath needlessly. That is especially true for people who did not buy or refinance at the peak of the real estate bubble market - 2005-6. If you bought in the late 1990's or even the earlier 2000's, you may be alright now. You won't know if you don't look and see.

There is no guarantee that you've recovered enough to sell, but you sure won't know if you do nothing. If you've been waiting to sell, so that you can get on with retirement or maybe look at that move up house or downsize house that you've been considering, this is step one.

Give me a call at 248-763-2497 and let's set up an appointment for me to do a FREE market analysis of your home (Southeastern Michigan residents only, please). I'll give you the straight answer to your question about your home's value on the current market and even provide some advice or tips on things that you might need to do to get it ready for sale (if that's what you want to do).

Mission Accomplished - Bill Schimmel's Book on Jacob Tipsico

Bill Schimmel was a long-time Milford Township resident and member of the board of directors for the Milford Historical Society. Bill passed away this year after a long bout with cancer, but not before finishing a project that he had worked on, off and on, for the last ten years – a book based upon the life of a local Native American member of the Chippewa tribe – Jacob Tipsico. Yes, this was the man for which Tipsico Lake was named and subsequently Tipsico Lake Road.

Bill was always interested in Native American history and memorabilia. He was part Native American himself, based upon research into his family history that revealed a Cherokee relative several generations back. Bill was a collector of local arrow heads and there is an exhibit of some of those at the Milford Historical Society Museum. Bill became interested in tracing the man and his family for which Tipsico Lake was named after he stumbled upon the lake while out Christmas tree shopping years ago. His interest eventually turned into a passion and then into a mission to do the research and gather the information necessary to document the life of this local Native American. Bill enlisted the aid of a friend and artist, Thomas Bem, to provide illustrations of events for which pictures could not be found and he enlisted local writer Joyce Clark to act as editor for the book.

Bill was himself an interesting man of many interests and talents. He was a Metallurgical Engineer for fifty years, working on the development of metals for the automotive and aerospace industries. He held several patents and had written many technical papers during his career. One of his proudest achievements was while he worked for Rocketdyne in California on the team that contributed to the landing of the Apollo 11 Mission, when man first walked on the moon. He retired as Director of Materials from Williams International, a local manufacturer of small jet engines in Walled Lake, Michigan, after working there for 31 years.

Most of us will probably not take the time or have the passion that Bill had to turn his interest in Jacob Tipsico into such a mission and then to devote so much time and energy into pursuing that mission. We are, however, better off that he did pursue his dream and now we have his wonderful book about the life and family of Jacob Tipsico. Tipsico was not listed as a chief in the documentation of the time that BIll could find and confirm, so Bill does not call him that either; but Tipsico was related to a long line of Chippewa chiefs and was perhaps the last vestige of what by then was a by-gone era.

Much of Bill’s book documents what was happening in that time to the Native American population and might make you cringe a bit today, but it is history worth knowing and Bill does a good job in the telling. They don’t teach about the “Trail of Tears” in school history classes, but Bill’s book contains a good lesson on that dark period in our nation’s history. Bill does a good job of setting the larger context of Native American life at that time and then goes on to document Jacob Tipsico’s life and family within that context.

The book – Jacob Tipsico – A Michigan Chippewa, His Life, His Family and the End of an Era – will be available at the Milford Historical Museum and selected local Milford retail stores. It is only $10 and should be a must-read for those interested in the history of the local area or in the history of the Native American population and what they endured as they were displaced by the invasion of white European settlers. Get a copy for yourself or as a gift for someone for Christmas. You can pair it up with a copy of Ten Minutes Ahead of the Rest of the World, the history of Milford, Michigan, to make a great coffee table set.

Have you hugged someone today?

From the Jack’s Winning Words blog comes this little gem to start the week - “A hug is a great gift. One size fits all, and it’s easy to exchange.” (Unknown).

Hugs are quite common is some cultures and relatively rare in others (such as ours), especially for men. Women in all cultures seem to be much more comfortable with (and prone to) hugging as a greeting. In some cultures hugs are accompanied by kisses on both cheeks; although that too has evolved into a sort of air-kiss bobbing of heads these days.

Deciding whether to hug or just shake hands can be awkward, especially if one party has already stock out their hand for the shake and the other has extended both arms for the hug. My general rule of thumb is to go for the hug, if either side has initiated it. Again, women seem more comfortable turning the greeting into a hug than men. Men seem to reserve hugs for the camaraderie of memorable sports moments or for special occasions like weddings or funerals; whereas women see hugs and a natural everyday thing to do.

I suppose it’s possible to have a heartfelt handshake with someone, but not nearly as effective as the warm embrace accompanied by some whispered sentiment that a hug allows. Of course whispering between men is another no-no in our society, unless it is at that special occasion. I guess men have substituted the pat on the back or slap on the butt for hugs. Those don’t work as well for people that you don’t know well or outside the euphoria of celebrating a special moment.

The really nice thing about a hug is that it usually makes both people feel better about themselves and the other party. So, greet someone with a hug today. They’ll feel better and you will, too.

How the real estate math works...

There have been lots of positive stories about the real estate market coming back lately. They are all good news and for the most part true. One headline seemed particularly positive when it stated that “Home values up 18% locally.” That is true, too. When you read the story the author claims that home values have risen 18% from their low point about 18-24 months ago. Much of that quick rise in values the author correctly attributed to the short age of inventory. Buyers are bidding up what homes there are on the market.

Home values in this area fell between 30-40% from their 2005/6 peaks during the recession. So, many people read that headline and may think, ”18% gain,  great I’ve regained about ½ of the loss”; but, that’s not how the math works.

For the sake of simplicity, let’s say you either bought or refinanced at the peak of the market a $300,000 house. During the recession that house lost 1/3 of its value (again for simplicity’s sake); so it fell to $200,000 in value by 2010. So the owner lost $100,000 in real value during the recession. Now he reads that home values have gained by 18% during the last two years. Great! He’ better than half way back. Right? No, let’s do the math on that. That 18% gain was from the low point of $200,000 or a gain of $36,000 from the bottom. That’s only 36% of the loss that he suffered, not 50% or better.

The other factor is to understand the real, underlying appreciation; which is much less than the supply driven inflation of prices. The true appreciation is believed by most experts to be only 3-4% per year, which is back to the historical real estate appreciation curve. Once the inventory situation stabilizes, with more houses on the market, we will again see the true appreciation picture emerge. That is why most experts have also been predicting that it will take most homeowners a decade or more to recoup their losses.

During the inventory-driven run-up of apparent values we have seen problems with sales that are driven by low appraisals. That is because the appraisers are not factoring in the increase due to the tight supply as quickly as the market. They will continue to lag the market a bit and that will continue to cause problems as buyers make bids that the appraisals don’t support.

 So when you read reports that home sales values are up by some percentage, just remember that they are referring to year over year increases and that we are starting back from a fairly deep hole. Yes the values are up, and that’s a good thing if you’re a seller. For buyers, that means that you should act now because the prices are only going to go higher. The bottom of the market is behind us, but there are still great deals to be had.

Norman, W Werner 248-763-2497

MI Monthly Market Report - Nov 2012 October was the most active new purchase month in the past two years, giving some great momentum going into the winter. With inventories at 10-year lows and buyer activity building, this should be a wild winter for Buyers chasing their perfect home. To give you a snapshot for the cause of inventory decline, over the past 90 days sales were up 22%. Meanwhile, the number of new listings placed on the market fell 6% compared to last year, which accelerated area appreciation rates. Appreciation Momentum is growing 2012 vs. 2011 % Change in Price per Square Foot  - SE Michigan October 18.30% September 14.80% August 12.80% These growth rates are a combination of fewer lower-priced homes for sale and a growing rate of appreciation. Separating the two is not an exact science, however it appears that at least a third of the growth rate (or 6%+-) is a true value increase. Should I stay or should I go? A great song by The Clash, but with prices rising, also a good question for today's Sellers, "Sell now or wait?" Since housing is not just about the financial gain, the answer depends as much on your personal housing goals as timing the rate of appreciation. However, if you are looking to move up to a larger home, there is no doubt you should be looking now. The math is clearly in your favor! Should I Stay or Should I Go? Current Home Value $100,000 Value in 2 Years $118,000 Gain by Waiting $18,000 New Home Value Today $170,000 New Home Value in 2 Years $201,000 Gain by Buying Now $31,000 Loss by Waiting ($13,000)   Plus: Cost of extra interest ($18,000) Total Cost of Waiting 2 Years ($31,000) *assumes a 10 year holding period. For simplicity, does not consider closing costs or tax effects Right now, a first-time buyer has all the best pieces in their favor to buy. Rising rental rates, low home prices and low interest rates make a once in a lifetime combination. Those downsizing should consider the future interest rate increase, which makes a move today worthwhile. A 1% rise in interest rates will offset a 12% rise in appreciation. We anticipate strong appreciation over the next couple of years, but not 12%. Though, interest rates most certainly will rise 1-2% in the coming years. Anyone who is considering selling in the next few years should be making plans now, so they can test the market in 2013. In that vein, we have a great new market update video for you to use to get an overview of your local market area. It's only one-minute in length with great charts and a voiceover. Click to See how it works! http://video-portal.sundaysky.com/realestateone If you would like more information on the market, like to list your property, or want information on any property with any broker, you may call or email at anytime. Thank you,   Norman, W Werner Put my team to work for you P: 248-763-2497 normwerner@comcast.net http://www.normwerner.realestateone.com My Other Web Sites: http://www.movetomilford.com http://www.themilfordteam.com http://www.mishortsales.net Also visit: http://www.milfordhistory.org

Choose your own Market Update

My company - Real Estate One - has always been at the forefront of the Internet wave and now they've introduced a new tool that I can make available to you, so that you can choose which local markets for which you'd like to see an update. Just click on the Graphic below to be taken to a site where you'll get to make your choice of local markets.

The market updates won't give you speciofic data about sales in the area but focus more on the trends like whether more or less homes were listed or sold. For specific data on sales in the markets that I track, you'll still need to go to my Web site www.movetomilford.com and click on the link "What have homes in this area sold for?"

The site above will give you soem good info on the trends inteh area and tracks many more marekts than I do. I have put this site on both my Move to Milford site and my www.themilfordteam.com site.
Enjoy!

Market Report for real estate in the Milford area

There are lots of articles about the national real estate market and the occasional article about the Michigan market; but how are we doing locally? Here’s my attempt to give you a snapshot of our local market. I invite you to visit my web site www.movetomilford.com if you want to see all of the statistics that I have been collecting all year long. I’ll use a combination of charts from Altos Research and my own local market data from the Multi-List Service, which I update and report weekly. It's unfortunate that the Blogger editor is so poor that I can't get the graphics of the Y-T-D stats to appear correctly, but that's what I'm left with.

The Milford market (Township and Village) –

 

 

Year-to-date Stats thru November 11 –

  

Key – SEV = State Equalized Value (what the assessors thought they were worth), DOM = Days on Market, the last two are what the sellers ask and got per square foot for the homes

 

The Commerce Township market –

 

Year-to-Date Stats –

 

 

The Highland Township market –

Year-to-Date Stats

 

 

The White Lake Township market –

 

 

Year-to-Date Stats

 

Great stats and charts, but what does this all mean?

 

You can see just in four markets that are right next to each other how volatile and variable the real estate market is right now. The Milford market is generally up in home sales values; however the chart also points to both inventory and average sale values falling. That is because so much of the middle of the normal market is still frozen and what is selling lately has been mainly on the lower end. That inventory has fallen too, so right now it’s just hard to find a good house in Milford.

 

The Commerce market, which includes data from Walled Lake and Wolverine Lake, has sort of flat-lined out at the current level. At least that level was generally higher than the market has been, but the Commerce market is still dominated by lower end sales and enough foreclosures and short sales to keep values under $100/Sq Ft for the year. The Commerce market actually broke through the $100/Sq Ft barrier in October and you can see that if you go look at the archive of monthly stats that I keep at the www.movetomilford.com web site.

 

Highland Township’s market looks to be following a traditional supply vs. demand curve, with average sale values going up as the inventory comes down. The Highland market has actually been over $100/Sq Ft for three months now, but it was so depressed for a long while that it will take a bit before that is reflected in the Y-T-D stats. You can still get a fairly good deal on homes in Highland.

 

The White Lake market trails the rest and has yet to react to the falling inventory by showing higher average sale values. White Lake is another market that has been greatly impacted by foreclosures and short sales. The market is still about 40% distressed sales and you can still finds homes for under $90/SqFt. You will also find more lower-priced homes in White Lake than in the other three.  

Give universally, but volunteer locally...

There are so many very good causes begging for our attention and contributions these days. Almost all are legitimate, although some charity appeals come from fund-raising companies that keep as much as they pass on to the actual underlying charity. The really big causes – cancer, heart disease, muscular dystrophy and such – have huge fund-raising machines going all of the time. They are worth causes and giving to them will make you feel better; however, it’s a short-lived feeling because you just ship your donation off to somewhere and don’t really see how it’s used or any results from your small contribution to the cause. Still, we all need to support those big efforts because they will benefit us all.

There are also lots of local charities and organizations doing good works right in our community. With those, there are not only opportunities to give money; but, also lots of opportunities to o hands-on service work; the kind of work that will give you good feeling that will stick with you for a long time, because you get to see the results.  A couple examples in our area are the Community Sharing Outreach Center Food Pantry and the local Meals on Wheels group.

The Community Sharing Outreach Center appears to be a local group that was started back in 2004 as an outgrowth of programs being run by local churches. It has expanded and added services and now offers the following services: 

·         Food/Pet Food - Available once a month and in emergencies

·         Clothing - Available during open hours

·         Emergency financial assistance - This includes evictions, utility shut off and other emergencies.

·         Case Management- Needs assessment, advocacy, networking with and referrals to other agencies for optimum assistance for clients.

·         Educational Assistance - Tutoring in core subjects (K-12), assistance for adults preparing for GED testing.  Tutoring is available for all Huron Valley Schools students who participate in the Federal Lunch Program. You do not need to be a client.

·         Focus Hope - Monthly food distribution site for those over 60 and under 6.

·         The Emergency Food Assistance Program - TEFAP distribution site providing extra food to clients quarterly.

It has been noted here before that the Community Sharing Pet Food Pantry is the only one of its kind in the state that also provides pet food to needy families that otherwise could not afford to keep their family pets.

The Community Sharing Outreach Center is located in Highland at 2029 N. Milford Rd in the old middle school building. They also have a Milford location, which is a community vegetable garden, at the corner of Milford and GM Roads. You can learn more about the Community Sharing Outreach Center and the opportunities that it offers to serve at their web site – www.community-sharing.org .

The local Meals on Wheels organization is part of a larger, national effort to make sure that food gets to shut-ins and seniors. You may visit the national web site at http://www.mowaa.org/  . Locally the web site is http://www.mealcall.org/meals-on-wheels/mi/milford.htm .

This is a simple idea, to make sure that seniors and shut-ins don’t go hungry; however it takes a lot of work by a lot of volunteers and a lot of contributions to buy the food that is needed. I’ve put a flyer on my Move to Milford web site about the volunteer opportunities for Meals on Wheels at http://www.movetomilford.com/meals_on_wheels.html .

People who need meals can call two locations – the Milford Senior Center at 248-685-9008 or directly to the Meals on Wheels coordinator at 248-684-0705. If you are able and interested there are plenty of opportunities to help with this effort. I can tell you, based upon my personal experience of delivering food baskets to needy family through my church, that nothing will give you a better feeling that seeing the smiles of people who were facing another day of hunger if you weren’t there with some food. Call them today and volunteer to make, pack or deliver food to those who are shut-in.

Another avenue for local volunteering that will make you feel great is through the many local organizations with a focus on programs for children and families, such as the Carl’s Family YMCA, the Milford Library, and the Community Education and Recreation through the Huron Valley School District. There are links to all three of those organizations and their program calendars on my web site – www.movetomilford.com. I’m sure that all of them can always use more help.

 

Local, membership-based service organizations like the Rotary Club and the Optimists, as well as organizations like the Knights of Columbus also have multiple fund raising events for worthy causes throughout the year. And, of course, all of the local churches are always working quietly behind the scenes to help families in need. Churches run on volunteer help, so ask how you can help at your church.

There is an old saying that I’ll paraphrase by saying “you get back by giving.” No amount of money in your paycheck can make you feel as good as you’ll feel by volunteering for organizations like these and helping others. Yes, we still need to give money to these and other worthy causes, both local and national; but it’s these local organizations that need and can use your help and time to make a difference. Call one of them today and ask how you can volunteer. So, rather than just hand off some money; get the hands-on experience of actually doing the work. It’s great!