I went to a neighborhood party over the weekend where a neighbor who also happens to be a regular reader of this blog mentioned to me that he was happy to see that I am back to more frequent blogging posts. I have to admit that I missed it (and you who read all of this), too.
I enjoy writing this blog and the others that I post to occasionally. I wrote here some months back that I was embarking on the ambitious path of a dual career. I'm still dong real estate, but I am also working for the local Xerox Agent/Reseller - The Digital Document Store - in Milford. I sell the full line of Xerox products and services locally and as far over as Macomb County. In addition the store does all manner of business printing, from business cards to big outside banners.
Starting out in any new business venture like that is always daunting. It took me months to begin to understand the product line and the acronyms and the business practices involved with this new job. I say begin advisedly, since I am still in a steep learning curve, but not as steep as before. I don't feel like I'll embarrass myself when I go out to meet clients anymore, but I still lean heavily on the owner and my fellow sale person for advice and help.
During these many months my real estate business has been putzing along somewhat on it's own; although I have devoted enough attention to it to keep it viable. The real estate market itself has been pretty slow and much of the activity (mine included) has been on foreclosures or short-sales. I recently listed two historic homes in the Village of Milford - one a short-sale place in need of attention and one a really nice, move-in ready place - both within easy walking distance to downtown Milford. I also recently listed a place down in Taylor, Michigan. How did I end up with that?
Well, I run a web site called http://www.mishortsales.net/ (you can also get there with http://www.mishortsales.com/) that is devoted to giving people facing short-sales valuable information about the process. The lady that owns the home in Taylor found me there. Visit that site or recommend it to anyone that you know is facing that potential. I don't solicit heavily there, but try to give people the information that they need to get ready for the the short-sale process
And remember that if you need to make copies of all of those short sale documents that are required, come in and see us at the Digital Document Store in Milford. We're on the corner where Commerce Rd make the turn into Milford, where the Back Yard Birds store used to be. And if you run a business and need a copier/printer, give me a call - I can help with that, too.
Monday, October 4, 2010
First-time buyers buying down
A recent report from The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) while the national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,600 in August, up 0.8 percent from a year ago, sales of distressed homes rose to 34 percent, up from July, and were 3 percent over August of 2009. In our area the numbers have always been higher and stood at 45% at the end of September. That is actually very good for our area where distressed sales have been over 50% for the longest time. The median home price in the little market that I track was at $159,537 at the end of September, which shows the impact of the higher percentage of distressed sales.
These factors are affecting the way first-time buyers are buying. The NAHB report shows that there is a growing segment of first-timers looking for smaller and less expensive new homes. First-timers are a large market segment, with a reported 8.4 millions first-timers nationwide.
Bob Jones, chairman of NAHB says that builders are increasingly gearing their homes to the needs of first-time buyers. That trend is expected to continue in the period ahead as the economy begins generating more jobs and more people in their 20's form households. One reason that the homes need to be cheaper is that many of these first-time buyers are also first-time workers and are feeling the impact of the two-tier pay scales that were negotiated over the last few years. Older workers may be making $25-35/hour, but new workers are hired in at $15/hour for much the same work. They just don't make the money to to able to buy the bigger houses of the past.
New homes are also a better match for the needs of a population that is much more attuned to sustainability. Compared to what is typically available in the existing housing stock, they are more energy-efficient, easier to maintain and have designs better suited to today's lifestyles.
The NAHB report goes on to point out that this demographic of first-time buyers are, on average, buying homes with 1,874 square feet, though a whopping 46 percent are buying homes smaller than $1,500 square feet. With half of first-time buyers reportedly earning less than $60,000 a year, maybe this move could spell a new, more responsible, trend when it comes to spending? Wouldn't that be novel in America?
In our area most new-build projects are still stalled out as local builders find it difficult to get loans to build anything. I've noticed a few starts in what were stalled projects, but very few. The Lyon Township and South Lyon areas continue to show the most strength locally for new-builds. There is still appeal to being out along the I-96 corridor.
I can't identify the first-time buyers in the statistics that I track for my little 6-township market, but I have posted the final numbers for September. You can go see all of the statistics that I track, as well as numerous charts from national services at my Web sites - http://www.movetomilford.com/, http://www.themilfordteam.com/ or http://www.mihomebuyer.com/ (which is a first-time buyer oriented web site).
On an anecdotal note, recent historic home sales in the Village of Milford point to a minor recovery of sorts in that market, with recent appraisals supporting a rising price per square foot for well-maintained and updated historic homes. That's good news for my market and for the Village.
These factors are affecting the way first-time buyers are buying. The NAHB report shows that there is a growing segment of first-timers looking for smaller and less expensive new homes. First-timers are a large market segment, with a reported 8.4 millions first-timers nationwide.
Bob Jones, chairman of NAHB says that builders are increasingly gearing their homes to the needs of first-time buyers. That trend is expected to continue in the period ahead as the economy begins generating more jobs and more people in their 20's form households. One reason that the homes need to be cheaper is that many of these first-time buyers are also first-time workers and are feeling the impact of the two-tier pay scales that were negotiated over the last few years. Older workers may be making $25-35/hour, but new workers are hired in at $15/hour for much the same work. They just don't make the money to to able to buy the bigger houses of the past.
New homes are also a better match for the needs of a population that is much more attuned to sustainability. Compared to what is typically available in the existing housing stock, they are more energy-efficient, easier to maintain and have designs better suited to today's lifestyles.
The NAHB report goes on to point out that this demographic of first-time buyers are, on average, buying homes with 1,874 square feet, though a whopping 46 percent are buying homes smaller than $1,500 square feet. With half of first-time buyers reportedly earning less than $60,000 a year, maybe this move could spell a new, more responsible, trend when it comes to spending? Wouldn't that be novel in America?
In our area most new-build projects are still stalled out as local builders find it difficult to get loans to build anything. I've noticed a few starts in what were stalled projects, but very few. The Lyon Township and South Lyon areas continue to show the most strength locally for new-builds. There is still appeal to being out along the I-96 corridor.
I can't identify the first-time buyers in the statistics that I track for my little 6-township market, but I have posted the final numbers for September. You can go see all of the statistics that I track, as well as numerous charts from national services at my Web sites - http://www.movetomilford.com/, http://www.themilfordteam.com/ or http://www.mihomebuyer.com/ (which is a first-time buyer oriented web site).
On an anecdotal note, recent historic home sales in the Village of Milford point to a minor recovery of sorts in that market, with recent appraisals supporting a rising price per square foot for well-maintained and updated historic homes. That's good news for my market and for the Village.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
And when they got there the cupboard was bare...
That line from an old nursery rhyme might well be used to describe the current real estate market in our area. For reasons that likely includes a good deal of disgust over what has happen to home values; the inventory of homes for sale in my little patch of the market is very low, maybe even historically low; especially in the "sweet spot" of this market - the $200-$300K range.
Traditionally that $200-300K sweet spot is the most active part of our market and represents those move-up buyers who are making their second home purchase - moving out of their first home, their starter home. That's just not happening right now due to concerns about employment. The average DOM (Days On Market) for that segment is now above a year in this area. Add to that the frustration of the loss of 30-40% of the home's value over the last 2-3 years and you have a formula for market stagnation. And, that's just what has happened.
The Village of Milford Market has only 9 homes that fit the sweet spot definition and is doing OK, since they only average 107 DOM. Out of the nine, eight are privately owned, so only one foreclosure in the group; however there is also one short-sale in the privately held group. So, 2 out of 9 homes that are for sale on the Village are "distressed sales", which may make them less attractive to many would-be buyers. That leaves only 7 homes in the sweet spot in our little Village market. a few years back we would likely have had between 15-25 for sale in that same range at any one time.
Traditionally that $200-300K sweet spot is the most active part of our market and represents those move-up buyers who are making their second home purchase - moving out of their first home, their starter home. That's just not happening right now due to concerns about employment. The average DOM (Days On Market) for that segment is now above a year in this area. Add to that the frustration of the loss of 30-40% of the home's value over the last 2-3 years and you have a formula for market stagnation. And, that's just what has happened.
The Village of Milford Market has only 9 homes that fit the sweet spot definition and is doing OK, since they only average 107 DOM. Out of the nine, eight are privately owned, so only one foreclosure in the group; however there is also one short-sale in the privately held group. So, 2 out of 9 homes that are for sale on the Village are "distressed sales", which may make them less attractive to many would-be buyers. That leaves only 7 homes in the sweet spot in our little Village market. a few years back we would likely have had between 15-25 for sale in that same range at any one time.
What this all means is that, even though the market is still described as a "buyers market", in news stories, it is really a good time to list your house, if you want to (or need to) sell it. There is little competition right now. Sure, there are fewer buyers out looking and they are expecting lower prices; but, they also have much less to choose from, so your home has a better chance of selling. This applies not just to the sweet spot that I've been discussing here but pretty much across the board in all price ranges.
So, if you've been holding off until the market bottomed out and started back, I'd tell you that now is a good time to jump in. Prices have stabilized and there is low inventory. No, I can't undo what the market has done to your home's value; and, if you intend to wait until it comes back, you're in for a long haul. If you just wanted to make sure that prices wouldn't keep dropping if you put it on the market, I think we've arrived at that point, so go for it. Give me a call and let's take advantage of the low inventory situation to sell your house.Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Family trends may drive housing decisions...
From the Web-based newsletter IconoWatch by Iconoculture.com comes this story –
Chalk up another emerging trend to the lingering recession: 1 in 10 U.S. youngsters now lives with a grandparent, according to a Pew Research Center study (Washington Post 9.10.10).
The number of grandparents acting as caregivers rose gradually throughout the decade, then spiked sharply after December 2007, when the recession officially started. One reasons cited by analysts is that adult children are leaving the home for career retraining or to look for work in other locales.
White grandparents were most likely to be enlisted as caregivers. Their ranks rose 9%, as opposed to 2% for blacks and no change for Hispanics.
A previous Pew study noted a recession-linked spike in multigenerational U.S. households. So if it’s not just the grandkids it likely that the whole extended family is living together.
It’s also not unusual for ethnic families from many Eastern European and the Middle East to have multiple generations or extended families living together – it’s just a normal part of the cultures.
Whether it's boomerang kids moving back home or grands stepping in as 'rents, the recession has redefined "normal" family life. Companies looking to reach today's consumers need to understand the changing needs of multigenerational households.
From a real estate point of view this might mean that the older generation will be looking for a bigger house, so that the entire family will fit. I’ve certainly hit that myself with clients. Some times these families will look to buy multiple homes right next to each other, so that they can spread out a bit, but still be close together. Whatever the need – more space to accommodate grandchildren or lots more space to house an extended family, I can help – give me a call.
Chalk up another emerging trend to the lingering recession: 1 in 10 U.S. youngsters now lives with a grandparent, according to a Pew Research Center study (Washington Post 9.10.10).
The number of grandparents acting as caregivers rose gradually throughout the decade, then spiked sharply after December 2007, when the recession officially started. One reasons cited by analysts is that adult children are leaving the home for career retraining or to look for work in other locales.
White grandparents were most likely to be enlisted as caregivers. Their ranks rose 9%, as opposed to 2% for blacks and no change for Hispanics.
A previous Pew study noted a recession-linked spike in multigenerational U.S. households. So if it’s not just the grandkids it likely that the whole extended family is living together.
It’s also not unusual for ethnic families from many Eastern European and the Middle East to have multiple generations or extended families living together – it’s just a normal part of the cultures.
Whether it's boomerang kids moving back home or grands stepping in as 'rents, the recession has redefined "normal" family life. Companies looking to reach today's consumers need to understand the changing needs of multigenerational households.
From a real estate point of view this might mean that the older generation will be looking for a bigger house, so that the entire family will fit. I’ve certainly hit that myself with clients. Some times these families will look to buy multiple homes right next to each other, so that they can spread out a bit, but still be close together. Whatever the need – more space to accommodate grandchildren or lots more space to house an extended family, I can help – give me a call.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
A most unusual week in real estate
I've been tracking six markets in my immediate area for several years now and I believe that this is the first week ever that I had one of the markets not record a single sale. I don't track sales below $20,000, which includes all leases; so there was the possibility that I missed seeing a really low priced sale. I looked and that was not the case. For last week the Brighton market - city and township - did not record a single sale. There was one lease for $2,000/week; but, that was it.
It's not as if Brighton is my smallest market either. Milford, followed by Highland are smaller, in terms of units sold year-to-date. The South Lyon/Lyon Twp market is also smaller in terms of units. So it is a bit unusual that the Brighton market would be silent for a whole week. Maybe there is a pent-up demand building - the Brighton Bubble, so to speak - that will burst forth next week, as the month comes to an end.
Otherwise, and elsewhere, the markets that I track seem to be following a pattern of stabilizing and even rising home sale prices (at least in the averages and medians that I measure). Inventory is still down a bit and homes above $200K are finally selling. The foreclosed and short-sales, as a percentage of overall sales continues to fluctuate above and below the 50% mark, with last weeks sales made up of 53% of those distressed categories, after having been below 50% for a couple of weeks.
It's great to see activity in the segments of the market above $200K. That gives me great hope that a recovery has in fact started. All indication are that, if we have not started back up, we are at least bouncing along the bottom, with things not getting worse either. Time and the benefit of hindsight will tell us eventually if we had reached the bottom by this date. I'll see yo in the future where we can pontificate mightily that we knew it all along.
It's not as if Brighton is my smallest market either. Milford, followed by Highland are smaller, in terms of units sold year-to-date. The South Lyon/Lyon Twp market is also smaller in terms of units. So it is a bit unusual that the Brighton market would be silent for a whole week. Maybe there is a pent-up demand building - the Brighton Bubble, so to speak - that will burst forth next week, as the month comes to an end.
Otherwise, and elsewhere, the markets that I track seem to be following a pattern of stabilizing and even rising home sale prices (at least in the averages and medians that I measure). Inventory is still down a bit and homes above $200K are finally selling. The foreclosed and short-sales, as a percentage of overall sales continues to fluctuate above and below the 50% mark, with last weeks sales made up of 53% of those distressed categories, after having been below 50% for a couple of weeks.
It's great to see activity in the segments of the market above $200K. That gives me great hope that a recovery has in fact started. All indication are that, if we have not started back up, we are at least bouncing along the bottom, with things not getting worse either. Time and the benefit of hindsight will tell us eventually if we had reached the bottom by this date. I'll see yo in the future where we can pontificate mightily that we knew it all along.
Friday, September 24, 2010
What now? What's next?
Now that the recession is officially over (and actually has been for over a year without us knowing it), what happens next? I'm still seeing stories on a daily basis about how bad the real estate market is in Michigan and in the Detroit area in particular - down again last month year-over-year. Apparently not everyone go the memo that THE RECESSION IS OVER PEOPLE! It's time to star buying homes again.
I guess the fact that about 25% of our population doesn't have a job or are severely underemployed may still be acting as a damper to local real estate sales. Combine that with a mortgage market that, while sporting the lowest rates in decades, is still one of the toughest to qualify for ever and you have the formula for the continued swoon of our local real estate market. FUD reigns supreme in Michigan. There is still Fear of more job loses; Uncertainly about what will replace the lost automotive jobs; and Doubt about the leadership in Lansing having a clue about what to do.
As I talk to people who are working I get an ear full about how hard they are working, because they are now doing the jobs of 2-3 people who were laid off. Companies that are hiring are hiring part-timers, so that they don't have to pay benefits and to allow themselves to be flexible if another downturn occurs (the so-called "double-dip").
Every now and then you hear someone mention that they are in a "recession-proof industry." The health care industry comes to mind; although people also seem to be putting off health care due to lack of insurance and lack of jobs to pay for things. The back end of the health care industry - the funeral homes - may be the only truly recession proof industry. Even there people are opting for the cheapest funerals with rental of caskets for the viewing being hugely popular these days, along with cremation rather then internment.
So, maybe it's still too early to ask what's next. Maybe the better question is really, "When's next?" When are we finally going to get this recession behind us and get on with life. In Michigan that may still be a while. We are a state that has yet to deal with losing a big chunk of our population (their jobs went first and they followed). If Detroit has been characterized as a place with 1,2 Million homes for a population of 800,000, I hate to think what our excess housing overhang is at the state level, but we have to work our way through that inventory before much new building can take place. In the mean time, there are great bargains out there for the few people who are looking, so give me a call.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Numbers, numbers, numbers
The latest numbers on sold properties in the 6 townships that I track are available on my Web sites. I take a weekly look at sales in Milford (Twp and Village), Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, White Lake Twp, Lyon (Twp and City of South Lyon) and Brighton (Twp and City).
Sales of higher end house do seemto be picking up and the percentage of sales that involve foreclosures and short-sales is down below 50%. The average and median sold prices have also been creeping up. Those are good things and show a market that has at least stabilized a lotand one which is poised for a comeback.
I have a gut feel that there is a lot of pent up selling demand by owners who have just been waiting until things stabilized. There is also a rumored "shadow inventory" of foreclosed and pre-foreclosure homes out there that the banks are holding off the market. Those have got to hit the market sometime soon; so, we still have some issues to work through, but things are looking a bit better.
Employment uncertainty is stil holdign back the would-be move up buyers who used to make the market for mid-range houses, so hopefullyt that will also stabilize soon.
Sales of higher end house do seemto be picking up and the percentage of sales that involve foreclosures and short-sales is down below 50%. The average and median sold prices have also been creeping up. Those are good things and show a market that has at least stabilized a lotand one which is poised for a comeback.
I have a gut feel that there is a lot of pent up selling demand by owners who have just been waiting until things stabilized. There is also a rumored "shadow inventory" of foreclosed and pre-foreclosure homes out there that the banks are holding off the market. Those have got to hit the market sometime soon; so, we still have some issues to work through, but things are looking a bit better.
Employment uncertainty is stil holdign back the would-be move up buyers who used to make the market for mid-range houses, so hopefullyt that will also stabilize soon.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
How'd I miss it?
“Nothing is as far away as one minute ago.” (Jim Bishop). Jim Bishop was a newspaper man. He might be as confused as I am at the report on yesterday's national newscasts that not only is the great recession over; but, it has been over for over a year now. With the great clarity that comes from hindsight, economists are now declaring that the Great Recession ended in June 2009. Wow! How'd I miss that?
Maybe it's the fact that we still have between 15-20% of our state's citizens wandering about like zombies looking for work that now longer exists here. I read in today's paper how one local luxury mall is dong great guns business and how workers at a local auto supplier are all very busy. Of course they're busy; all of the remaining workers are doing the work of 2-3 people, since everyone else was let go.
There are now many scholarly debates going on about what to do to get the economy moving again. I saw a great line in a local newspaper about one of the major issues with housing in Detroit that might apply to this issue, too. The writer said that Detroit has 800,000 people living in an area with housing for 1,200,000 people and that is why there is such a problem with blight and abandoned building. Well if you turn that around a bit and apply it to the job situation; we probably have 1.200,000 people living in an area with 800,000 jobs. And, the lost jobs aren't coming back. The problem is compounded by the fact that most of the people without a job are living in a house that is under water on the mortgage; so they can't even move to find work.
Now there are even articles starting to appear that say, "Gee, maybe we should bring back some of the manufacturing jobs that we shipped overseas." Well, DUH! It's starting to sink in that the Chinese workers that our American companies are paying to manufacture their goods are not running down to the local Walmart to buy those goods. In fact, no one is running down to buy those goods, because the Americans who remain in the area are out of work or fear that they will be soon. But, hey, the Great Recession is over! Celebrate! Just ignore those people with the "Will work for food signs." They're probably slackers. Oh, wait, that's my neighbor...your brother...someones daughter...
Maybe it's the fact that we still have between 15-20% of our state's citizens wandering about like zombies looking for work that now longer exists here. I read in today's paper how one local luxury mall is dong great guns business and how workers at a local auto supplier are all very busy. Of course they're busy; all of the remaining workers are doing the work of 2-3 people, since everyone else was let go.
There are now many scholarly debates going on about what to do to get the economy moving again. I saw a great line in a local newspaper about one of the major issues with housing in Detroit that might apply to this issue, too. The writer said that Detroit has 800,000 people living in an area with housing for 1,200,000 people and that is why there is such a problem with blight and abandoned building. Well if you turn that around a bit and apply it to the job situation; we probably have 1.200,000 people living in an area with 800,000 jobs. And, the lost jobs aren't coming back. The problem is compounded by the fact that most of the people without a job are living in a house that is under water on the mortgage; so they can't even move to find work.
Now there are even articles starting to appear that say, "Gee, maybe we should bring back some of the manufacturing jobs that we shipped overseas." Well, DUH! It's starting to sink in that the Chinese workers that our American companies are paying to manufacture their goods are not running down to the local Walmart to buy those goods. In fact, no one is running down to buy those goods, because the Americans who remain in the area are out of work or fear that they will be soon. But, hey, the Great Recession is over! Celebrate! Just ignore those people with the "Will work for food signs." They're probably slackers. Oh, wait, that's my neighbor...your brother...someones daughter...
Monday, September 20, 2010
It ain't over 'til it's over...
That is a very famous piece of advice/philosophy from the master - Yogi Berra. He also coined the phrase "If you don't know where you're going, you might not get there." Both are useful to describe things in the real estate market these days. In many ways we don't know where we're going, because we're in uncharted waters in the current recession. And I'll be darned if I can tell if we're at the bottom of the market locally or may have already bottomed out and have started back.
A part of the confusion in the Michigan real estate market is caused by our horrendous unemployment situation - 13+%. There seems to be no end in sight for that, even though the local automakers have been through their rightsizing efforts. Most of the shakeout in the tier-one supplier base is also over, but the ripple effect through the entire supplier base is on-going. Basically, uncertainty reigns and no good can come out of uncertainty.
As I look at the data that I track, things don't seem all that bad. Houses are selling and more and more of them are houses above $200K, with fewer of them being foreclosures and short-sales. However, there is this impending sense of doom out there, too; because there is as big pool of homes that are delinquent but not yet foreclosed. I'm not sure if the banks are just holding back on foreclosures to try to stabilize the market or perhaps to keep more red ink off their books; but, it sure seems that they are going longer before pulling the trigger on the Sheriff's Sale these days. Perhaps some of the government's loan modification programs are working; but, my sense is that the banks are just holding back for purely selfish reasons.
I my little patch the percentage of sales that involve foreclosures and short sales slipped below 50% again last week - now down to 41% for September in the 6 market areas that I track. That's good news. The percentage of asked vs. sold prices in these markets has also crept up to about the historic norm of 97%. That means that homes are being priced properly and that buyers perceive that the asking prices correctly reflect the values. To see all of the local statistics for my market area, go to http://www.movetomilford.com/ and click on the Local Real Estate Statistics choice.
So, if it ain't over until it's over; how will we know when it's over? We likely won't know. We'll look back on some point in time and reflect that this is when things changes and the market started back. It's sort of like the economic numbers that economists use. They are always a quarter or two behind and they are almost always "adjusted" after the fact. Since Realtors are always using past sales to predict the future for new listings, we will undoubtedly miss the change by anywhere from a month to a quarter. We'll keep an eye on it for you, since Yogi also said, "You can observe a lot by watching."
A part of the confusion in the Michigan real estate market is caused by our horrendous unemployment situation - 13+%. There seems to be no end in sight for that, even though the local automakers have been through their rightsizing efforts. Most of the shakeout in the tier-one supplier base is also over, but the ripple effect through the entire supplier base is on-going. Basically, uncertainty reigns and no good can come out of uncertainty.
As I look at the data that I track, things don't seem all that bad. Houses are selling and more and more of them are houses above $200K, with fewer of them being foreclosures and short-sales. However, there is this impending sense of doom out there, too; because there is as big pool of homes that are delinquent but not yet foreclosed. I'm not sure if the banks are just holding back on foreclosures to try to stabilize the market or perhaps to keep more red ink off their books; but, it sure seems that they are going longer before pulling the trigger on the Sheriff's Sale these days. Perhaps some of the government's loan modification programs are working; but, my sense is that the banks are just holding back for purely selfish reasons.
I my little patch the percentage of sales that involve foreclosures and short sales slipped below 50% again last week - now down to 41% for September in the 6 market areas that I track. That's good news. The percentage of asked vs. sold prices in these markets has also crept up to about the historic norm of 97%. That means that homes are being priced properly and that buyers perceive that the asking prices correctly reflect the values. To see all of the local statistics for my market area, go to http://www.movetomilford.com/ and click on the Local Real Estate Statistics choice.
So, if it ain't over until it's over; how will we know when it's over? We likely won't know. We'll look back on some point in time and reflect that this is when things changes and the market started back. It's sort of like the economic numbers that economists use. They are always a quarter or two behind and they are almost always "adjusted" after the fact. Since Realtors are always using past sales to predict the future for new listings, we will undoubtedly miss the change by anywhere from a month to a quarter. We'll keep an eye on it for you, since Yogi also said, "You can observe a lot by watching."
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Observations from the local market data...
Earlier this week I updated the local market data that I track on home sales in the Milford market area. I define that as Milford (Township and Village), Highland Twp, Commerce Twp, White Lake Twp, The City of South Lyon and Lyon Twp and The City of Brighton and Brighton Twp. This was my first update that covered September sales, due to the mid-week switch between months (last week I just included the sales for August 30 & 31 to close out that month).
Anyway, the sales data for September and for the Year-to-Date in those markets is now posted at available through my main real estate Web sites - http://www.themilfordteam.com/, http://www.movetomilford.com/ and http://www.mihomebuyer.com/. One thing that I have noticed over the last few weeks is not really apparent if one just looks at the data. There are lots and lots of homes being sold fore less than the seller owes, but which are not short-sales. They are sales for which the owners/sellers are getting less than what they owe to the banks, but I'm noticing that many sellers are just eating the loss themselves. I've actually had a couple of listings that sold like that myself.
These sales are a classic case of owners not wishing to impact their credit standing by going through a short-sale. Short-sales, like foreclosures or bankruptcies do have an impact on the seller's credit. The severity of that impact is almost totally up to the bank involved and how they report the sale to the credit agencies. In a short-sale the bank agrees to take less for those that they were owed on it and the debt obligation is extinguished at that time; however, they do not have to (and most don't) report it as a debt that was satisfied. It was not paid off. Some banks even reserve the right to come after the shortfall later through collection actions or legal actions. It's the fear of those post short-sale actions and the potential damage of the report to the credit agencies that scares many homeowners into eating the losses themselves.
I suspect that every credit counseling agency would advise those owners not to strip money out of retirement savings or out of the kids college funds, but many do just that. Others may tap into mom and dad for a loan to pay the difference. Most do not have good enough credit to find unsecured lines of credit that they can tap for this purpose.
Another thing that I've noticed over the last couple of months is that homes in the $200 - $400K range (and even above) are starting to sell again - not like they used to, but still it's encouraging to see how many are selling this summer, even if about a third are short-sales.
Over the last 2-3 months there has also been fewer sales in the low-end $20-100K range, primarily I think because there has been little inventory since the tax credit was ended. Perhaps they were mostly sold off during the tax credit selling frenzy.
In our area I'm also seeing the sold price to SEV ratio creep back up towards the 2.0 mark that would indicate that the assessed values are getting closer to the market's perception of the real values. a home's SEV (State Equalized Value) is a unique Michigan value number, used for tax purposes and meant to represent 1/2 of the assessed value. In the good time (you remember them don't you) homes would sell for between 2.0 and 2.2 times the SEV. The township assessors couldn't keep up with the appreciation that was going on back then. For the last couple of years the assessors haven't been able to keep up with the decline in values and homes have been selling for between 1.4 to 1.6 times the SEV. Lately we are back up to about 1.8 times SEV, which means the assessed values and the market values are getting closer.
If you look at all of the charts that are available on my sites you'll also see that inventory is down, as is the median sold prices in most markets that I track. Right now inventory is so low that it is actually a good time to put a house on the market in most price bands. There just won't be much competition. It's still a good time to be a buyer, but you just won't have as much choice in most price bands as you might have had in the past.
Anyway, the sales data for September and for the Year-to-Date in those markets is now posted at available through my main real estate Web sites - http://www.themilfordteam.com/, http://www.movetomilford.com/ and http://www.mihomebuyer.com/. One thing that I have noticed over the last few weeks is not really apparent if one just looks at the data. There are lots and lots of homes being sold fore less than the seller owes, but which are not short-sales. They are sales for which the owners/sellers are getting less than what they owe to the banks, but I'm noticing that many sellers are just eating the loss themselves. I've actually had a couple of listings that sold like that myself.
These sales are a classic case of owners not wishing to impact their credit standing by going through a short-sale. Short-sales, like foreclosures or bankruptcies do have an impact on the seller's credit. The severity of that impact is almost totally up to the bank involved and how they report the sale to the credit agencies. In a short-sale the bank agrees to take less for those that they were owed on it and the debt obligation is extinguished at that time; however, they do not have to (and most don't) report it as a debt that was satisfied. It was not paid off. Some banks even reserve the right to come after the shortfall later through collection actions or legal actions. It's the fear of those post short-sale actions and the potential damage of the report to the credit agencies that scares many homeowners into eating the losses themselves.
I suspect that every credit counseling agency would advise those owners not to strip money out of retirement savings or out of the kids college funds, but many do just that. Others may tap into mom and dad for a loan to pay the difference. Most do not have good enough credit to find unsecured lines of credit that they can tap for this purpose.
Another thing that I've noticed over the last couple of months is that homes in the $200 - $400K range (and even above) are starting to sell again - not like they used to, but still it's encouraging to see how many are selling this summer, even if about a third are short-sales.
Over the last 2-3 months there has also been fewer sales in the low-end $20-100K range, primarily I think because there has been little inventory since the tax credit was ended. Perhaps they were mostly sold off during the tax credit selling frenzy.
In our area I'm also seeing the sold price to SEV ratio creep back up towards the 2.0 mark that would indicate that the assessed values are getting closer to the market's perception of the real values. a home's SEV (State Equalized Value) is a unique Michigan value number, used for tax purposes and meant to represent 1/2 of the assessed value. In the good time (you remember them don't you) homes would sell for between 2.0 and 2.2 times the SEV. The township assessors couldn't keep up with the appreciation that was going on back then. For the last couple of years the assessors haven't been able to keep up with the decline in values and homes have been selling for between 1.4 to 1.6 times the SEV. Lately we are back up to about 1.8 times SEV, which means the assessed values and the market values are getting closer.
If you look at all of the charts that are available on my sites you'll also see that inventory is down, as is the median sold prices in most markets that I track. Right now inventory is so low that it is actually a good time to put a house on the market in most price bands. There just won't be much competition. It's still a good time to be a buyer, but you just won't have as much choice in most price bands as you might have had in the past.
Monday, September 6, 2010
The great weeding out...
One aspect of the current recession that is having a great impact on the real estate profession is the weeding out of many of the marginal, part-time agents. Unfortunately this same process has caught up many full-time agents, too; as more and more people in real estate find that they can no longer make a living in the current real estate environment. We've lost a few full-timers at our office. As a result of this process, the real estate "profession" is probably more heavily made up of part-timers than ever - mostly people seeking extra income who are not dependent upon real estate for their livelihood.
It's not so much that nothing is selling. It's just that so much of what is selling is so cheap and takes so much time and effort to get to a closing, that it is just no longer worth it to many. The average sale in my market area used to be about $200,000, which isn't much when compared to California or Florida or some of the other more expensive markets; but it was still enough to make a living, if you sold enough sides at that average. Now the average is approaching $100,000, with many deals on foreclosed or short-sale houses in the $20,000 - $50,000 range.
The real rub is that it takes as long, or longer, and as much, if not more, effort to sell one of those low cost houses as it did for the $200-300,000 homes that we were selling. It has ended up being much like the shift from high paying union jobs at $28-40/hour in the auto industry to the new second-tier jobs at $14-16/hour. It's tough to get by when your pay is cut in half or more. That's why a number of Realtors have abandoned the trade and why a number of them are also in the foreclosure ranks with their own homes.
There is one point of view on this whole matter that says, "That's a good thing. It gets rid of the people who shouldn't have been in real estate in the first place." There's something to that argument. There are very low barriers to entry into the real estate sales field; so, lots of people who got into it for the wrong reasons - thinking it is an easy way to pick up some extra money on the side - are now just as quickly exiting the field. That probably is a good thing. I'm not sure what the turnover rate for new agents is locally, but it's got to be high right now.
However, there are also good, full-time Realtors, who perhaps didn't jump on the foreclosure and short-sale bandwagons fast enough or who otherwise haven't adjusted as well to the new market that we face to maintain their needed income stream. We are losing them, too. Some older Realtors got disgusted with the market dynamics and retired, some shifted into other fields that are related to real estate and many just left for other jobs where they could make a living. That's a shame, but a natural part of any profession, I guess. Change happens and there are always some who just can make the necessary adjustments to accommodate that change.
I found myself with this same dilemma. I missed the foreclosure bandwagon and was loathe for too long to deal with short-sales; so, I got left behind. I decided to seek something else to do and went dual career - selling office copiers/printers, as well as real estate. The dual career path is not an easy row to hoe either, since you have two completely different sales environments vying for your time and attention. At first I had to devote most of my time to learning new products and a new company and getting started in the new venture. That took at least 3-4 months of hard work, during which my real estate business languished. Now I've been able to achieve a better balance between the two and had some recent success in rebuilding my real estate business with new listings - ironically all short-sales.
So, the great weeding out will continue. The strongest and most adaptable agents will thrive, even in the current market and many others will survive and hope that things get better soon. The thrashing and turnover will continue at a high level at most agencies and many of them will not survive either. The key to making it in real estate these days may well be the ability to let go of any dreams about things getting "back to normal" and dreams of "the good ole days" and figuring out how to deal with the "new normal" of the current market. I don't have an answer yet, but I'm working on it. In the mean time...anybody need a copier/printer?
It's not so much that nothing is selling. It's just that so much of what is selling is so cheap and takes so much time and effort to get to a closing, that it is just no longer worth it to many. The average sale in my market area used to be about $200,000, which isn't much when compared to California or Florida or some of the other more expensive markets; but it was still enough to make a living, if you sold enough sides at that average. Now the average is approaching $100,000, with many deals on foreclosed or short-sale houses in the $20,000 - $50,000 range.
The real rub is that it takes as long, or longer, and as much, if not more, effort to sell one of those low cost houses as it did for the $200-300,000 homes that we were selling. It has ended up being much like the shift from high paying union jobs at $28-40/hour in the auto industry to the new second-tier jobs at $14-16/hour. It's tough to get by when your pay is cut in half or more. That's why a number of Realtors have abandoned the trade and why a number of them are also in the foreclosure ranks with their own homes.
There is one point of view on this whole matter that says, "That's a good thing. It gets rid of the people who shouldn't have been in real estate in the first place." There's something to that argument. There are very low barriers to entry into the real estate sales field; so, lots of people who got into it for the wrong reasons - thinking it is an easy way to pick up some extra money on the side - are now just as quickly exiting the field. That probably is a good thing. I'm not sure what the turnover rate for new agents is locally, but it's got to be high right now.
However, there are also good, full-time Realtors, who perhaps didn't jump on the foreclosure and short-sale bandwagons fast enough or who otherwise haven't adjusted as well to the new market that we face to maintain their needed income stream. We are losing them, too. Some older Realtors got disgusted with the market dynamics and retired, some shifted into other fields that are related to real estate and many just left for other jobs where they could make a living. That's a shame, but a natural part of any profession, I guess. Change happens and there are always some who just can make the necessary adjustments to accommodate that change.
I found myself with this same dilemma. I missed the foreclosure bandwagon and was loathe for too long to deal with short-sales; so, I got left behind. I decided to seek something else to do and went dual career - selling office copiers/printers, as well as real estate. The dual career path is not an easy row to hoe either, since you have two completely different sales environments vying for your time and attention. At first I had to devote most of my time to learning new products and a new company and getting started in the new venture. That took at least 3-4 months of hard work, during which my real estate business languished. Now I've been able to achieve a better balance between the two and had some recent success in rebuilding my real estate business with new listings - ironically all short-sales.
So, the great weeding out will continue. The strongest and most adaptable agents will thrive, even in the current market and many others will survive and hope that things get better soon. The thrashing and turnover will continue at a high level at most agencies and many of them will not survive either. The key to making it in real estate these days may well be the ability to let go of any dreams about things getting "back to normal" and dreams of "the good ole days" and figuring out how to deal with the "new normal" of the current market. I don't have an answer yet, but I'm working on it. In the mean time...anybody need a copier/printer?
Monday, August 23, 2010
How time flies...
I updated the Days on Market Chart on my MilfordTeam.com web site this morning, after letting it languish for several months it turns out. It didn't seem like it had been that long,but when I remembered it and went to look, it was last updated in May, which was 3-4 months ago. Wow, how time flies.
I have been focusing my attention on the weekly updates to the sold statistics for the 6 local markets that I track and I guess I just plain forgot about the old DOM Chart. That chart is useful for a couple of reasons - it shows what the inventory is in several different price bands in those 6 market and it show how the long the inventory is averaging on the market, which may give he buyer some idea of his/her bargaining position and the would-be seller a good idea about the competition and the length of time on the market to plan for.
If you combine the DOM statistics with the local market sold statistics you get a fairly good picture of the local market. Since I don't keep old charts for the DOM statistic, it is somewhat just my own recollection about it that leads me to believe that many sellers have abandoned the market or new would-be sellers have held off getting on the market. I say that because the inventory levels are down quite a bit in several price bands, especially those over $300K.
Locally, Milford still leads the pack in terms of stubborn sellers, with homes over $400K now out to about 2 years on the market on average. I tell people with higher-end homes in that market that it is a false indicator of retained value, if the homes aren't selling. Refusing to lower one's price to the level of the market does hold the perceived "value" of the properties up, but really only in the eyes of the sellers. To the market in general, they are just seen as overpriced houses.
So, visit one of my Web sites - either http://www.movetomilford.com/ or http://www.themilfordteam.com/ and take a lookat teh local market statistics. I believe that these are the only places that you will find the level of detail and some of the derived statstics that are posted there about the 6 local markets that I track on a weekly basis.
I have been focusing my attention on the weekly updates to the sold statistics for the 6 local markets that I track and I guess I just plain forgot about the old DOM Chart. That chart is useful for a couple of reasons - it shows what the inventory is in several different price bands in those 6 market and it show how the long the inventory is averaging on the market, which may give he buyer some idea of his/her bargaining position and the would-be seller a good idea about the competition and the length of time on the market to plan for.
If you combine the DOM statistics with the local market sold statistics you get a fairly good picture of the local market. Since I don't keep old charts for the DOM statistic, it is somewhat just my own recollection about it that leads me to believe that many sellers have abandoned the market or new would-be sellers have held off getting on the market. I say that because the inventory levels are down quite a bit in several price bands, especially those over $300K.
Locally, Milford still leads the pack in terms of stubborn sellers, with homes over $400K now out to about 2 years on the market on average. I tell people with higher-end homes in that market that it is a false indicator of retained value, if the homes aren't selling. Refusing to lower one's price to the level of the market does hold the perceived "value" of the properties up, but really only in the eyes of the sellers. To the market in general, they are just seen as overpriced houses.
So, visit one of my Web sites - either http://www.movetomilford.com/ or http://www.themilfordteam.com/ and take a lookat teh local market statistics. I believe that these are the only places that you will find the level of detail and some of the derived statstics that are posted there about the 6 local markets that I track on a weekly basis.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
But don't stop dreaming...
“The thing you have to be prepared for is that other people don’t always dream your dream.” (Linda Ronstadt)
Ain't that the truth. As I (we all) struggle through the current recession I find myself having to restart, re-energize and re-visualize (dream) what success will look and feel like, whether it is in real estate or in my other job selling office copiers/printers. People whom I call upon don't always share my dream (vision) of them happily buying a house or a copier/printer.
Right now I'm working through a campaign to sell new multifunction machines to real estate offices, which is something that I know more than a little bit about. I know where the savings are in those offices, but getting people to share my vision about how to achieve those savings hasn't been easy. Business people, especially small business people seem to be frozen into inactivity by the fear that things are still going to get worse rather than better.
The same thing is happening in real estate. People who want to move or maybe even need to move are holding off putting their homes on the market because they think that if they wait for a while home values will stabilize or maybe come back. While that eventually will be true, the timing on that happening is very much up in the air. In last weekend's paper there was yet another "We've hit bottom" article that quoted a hopeful local real estate broker as stating that he feels that the bottom has been reached in the Detroit-area market and that values will start back up soon. Having written such an article several times in the past, I'm now skeptical about whether or not we've hit bottom in Michigan. But, hey, one can dream. Right?
So, to paraphrase the words of another song - "Don't stop thinkin' about tomorrow...it'll be better than before." Don't stop dreaming. Just be prepared to deal with the fact that not everyone else will be sharing your dream and that's OK, too.
Ain't that the truth. As I (we all) struggle through the current recession I find myself having to restart, re-energize and re-visualize (dream) what success will look and feel like, whether it is in real estate or in my other job selling office copiers/printers. People whom I call upon don't always share my dream (vision) of them happily buying a house or a copier/printer.
Right now I'm working through a campaign to sell new multifunction machines to real estate offices, which is something that I know more than a little bit about. I know where the savings are in those offices, but getting people to share my vision about how to achieve those savings hasn't been easy. Business people, especially small business people seem to be frozen into inactivity by the fear that things are still going to get worse rather than better.
The same thing is happening in real estate. People who want to move or maybe even need to move are holding off putting their homes on the market because they think that if they wait for a while home values will stabilize or maybe come back. While that eventually will be true, the timing on that happening is very much up in the air. In last weekend's paper there was yet another "We've hit bottom" article that quoted a hopeful local real estate broker as stating that he feels that the bottom has been reached in the Detroit-area market and that values will start back up soon. Having written such an article several times in the past, I'm now skeptical about whether or not we've hit bottom in Michigan. But, hey, one can dream. Right?
So, to paraphrase the words of another song - "Don't stop thinkin' about tomorrow...it'll be better than before." Don't stop dreaming. Just be prepared to deal with the fact that not everyone else will be sharing your dream and that's OK, too.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
The double dip
This is the only double dip (scoop) that I really want to see; however, I'm not so sure that we haven't already slid back into the recession - at least around here. I was out for dinner last night at a favorite local spot and it was mostly empty at 7 PM. Before the recession the place would have been packed at that time of night.
There are other signs. The local real estate market is in the tank again and foreclosures and short sales have climbed back above 50% of all sales lately. Much of what is selling is at the lower endof the market and the Days on Market for homes above $300K is still almost 2 years.
I also work as a sales rep for a local Xerox dealer and spend quite a bit of time out driving around in industrial parks visting clients and prospecting for new business. It is appaling to see all of hte empty buildings and shuttered businesses. Lots and lots of small tool and die shops and machining shops and other small supplier businesses that were dependent upon the automotive industry are just gone. The small business manufacturing base in this area has been decimated and there is nothing in sight to take it's place.
I also see a lot of survivors who are continuing to struggle along, trying to keep the lights on while they seek new clients or switch to being suppliers for new industries. I wish them well and try to help by "rightsizing" their office equipment, if I can. Still, it is sad to see the little 6-8 man company that is sitting there with all of the old equipment for the 30-40 man company that they were just a couple of years ago.
We'll all get throuigh this current, second dip; however, what comes out on the other side is going to be a wholly different environment for businesses, for families, for us all.
There are other signs. The local real estate market is in the tank again and foreclosures and short sales have climbed back above 50% of all sales lately. Much of what is selling is at the lower endof the market and the Days on Market for homes above $300K is still almost 2 years.
I also work as a sales rep for a local Xerox dealer and spend quite a bit of time out driving around in industrial parks visting clients and prospecting for new business. It is appaling to see all of hte empty buildings and shuttered businesses. Lots and lots of small tool and die shops and machining shops and other small supplier businesses that were dependent upon the automotive industry are just gone. The small business manufacturing base in this area has been decimated and there is nothing in sight to take it's place.
I also see a lot of survivors who are continuing to struggle along, trying to keep the lights on while they seek new clients or switch to being suppliers for new industries. I wish them well and try to help by "rightsizing" their office equipment, if I can. Still, it is sad to see the little 6-8 man company that is sitting there with all of the old equipment for the 30-40 man company that they were just a couple of years ago.
We'll all get throuigh this current, second dip; however, what comes out on the other side is going to be a wholly different environment for businesses, for families, for us all.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Is the lion smiling at you?
“If you see the teeth of the lion, do not think that the lion is smiling at you.” (Al-Mutanabbi)
Somehow this saying from over 1,000 years ago seems apropos to today's real estate market, at least if you're a real estate sales person trying to make a living at it today. The lion that is the real estate market has been showing it's teeth for some time now. I, for one, determined that it was not smiling at me and went into dual-career mode, taking a job selling office equipment in addition to my real estate business. Some of my colleagues decided to take the lion tamer approach and stick there heads into the lion's mouth. I few have survived and a few did not and left the business altogether.
I suppose the message here is that one must first recognize the dangers and then come up with an appropriate plan of action. What is appropriate will be different for each person. For me it was
Somehow this saying from over 1,000 years ago seems apropos to today's real estate market, at least if you're a real estate sales person trying to make a living at it today. The lion that is the real estate market has been showing it's teeth for some time now. I, for one, determined that it was not smiling at me and went into dual-career mode, taking a job selling office equipment in addition to my real estate business. Some of my colleagues decided to take the lion tamer approach and stick there heads into the lion's mouth. I few have survived and a few did not and left the business altogether.
I suppose the message here is that one must first recognize the dangers and then come up with an appropriate plan of action. What is appropriate will be different for each person. For me it was
the opportunity to get back into business-to-business sales with a company that represents a major brand - Xerox - in a field that leverages the 30 years of IT sales experience that I had before getting into real estate. Business-to-business sales is a whole different ball game; although sometimes if feels like I've traded a smiling lion for a smiling tiger. Maybe it feels better because it is a tiger (business market) that I'm familiar with, after all that time selling computers and IT services.
I must admit that there are aspects o0f the real estate business that I miss - mainly the interaction with the people (buyers and sellers). There also aspects that I don't miss. There is no equivalent to the frustration of dealing with banks on a short sale in business-to-business sales. The whole foreclosure/short sale/financial mess has taken most of the pleasure out of real estate sales, at least for me. Every deal seems to be a struggle for all involved - buyers and sellers and certainly the agents for both.
The sense of any semblance of order and rules and structure in the real estate market is long gone. It's basically the Wild Wild West out there with lenders making their own rules as they go along. Every new Federal Program to help home owners or home buyers seems to bring hope, only to dash it when the reality of what the banks are going to do or not do sets in.
I'm not sure where the answer lies to all of the current issue. Likely only time will eventually bring the corrections that are needed. My belief is that we are in the midst of a major and permanent basic restructuring of our way of life in America. Some of us old timers aren't going to like it, but many of us won't be as affected by it as our grand children will be. They are the ones that will be hired in at the lower tier of the new 2-tier wage systems (the tiers could be appropriately labeled "before and after the meltdown" and equate to $10-15/hour lower wages).
In the new reality home ownership will again be an American dream and not a reality to many. Homes will be smaller, with less of the gee-whiz features and upgrades of the pre-meltdown era. Many other changes are occurring that will impact us all in many ways that we cannot now even imagine. More thoughts on that in a future post.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
June's in the books and July start was just posted.
As long-time readers of this blog know, I track six local township markets in Oakland and Livingston Counties in Michigan on a weekly basis. There is nowhere else where you can go to see the stats that I keep on these markets, since I generate some of them from the data. The markets are the townships of Milford (plus the Village), Commerce (with the Villages of Wolverine Lake and Walled Lake), Highland, White Lake, Lyon (with the city of South Lyon) and Brighton (the Township and City). I just finished posting the number for the first 11 days of July. I had posted only through the end of June last week, to sort of bring closure to that month. While you can view these stats from three of my sites, the main place that the4y are posted is on the Move to Milford Web site. They are under the Real Estate Statistics choice under "What's sold in the area" choice.
Another unique things about these stats is that I've been collecting them for a few years, so some of the data goes back 2-3 years, if you like to make year-to-year comparisons. I made a few changes over time to the format and even to the locations that I retained data about, but sales data for the core group is there going back to October 2007, when I began keeping track of things.
For those who are more visual and would like to see charts, I provide the charts on sold home median values and inventory, as well as a days on market and sales activity chart for each of those markets on my The Milford Team Web site, again under New Market Charts Page choice on the home page of the site. Those charts are also accessible from the Move To Milford site.
While I'm not really a data or charts fanatic; however, I do find the data and charts to be helpful when I'm trying to explain the market to potential buyers and sellers. Sellers in particular need to see the market charts and data about their market to understand why I'm recommending a particular price for their home. It's a little harder to argue for a higher price than the market will bear when you can see the data for the 100+ homes that have sold in the market for a lower price.
So, enjoy the data and the charts and give me a call if you want to discuss the market or maybe see what your home would bring on the current market.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Separated by 6 miles, but worlds apart...
I was tempted to title this piece a tale of two cities, but it's actually a tale of two townships in Oakland County, Michigan.
In Oakland County most townships are squares that are 6 miles on a side. The Townships of Highland and South Lyon are separated by Milford Township, so they are only six miles apart from each other; however, they are worlds apart so far as the local real estate market goes. Look first at Lyon Township, which contains the city of South Lyon within it's borders.
The market in Lyon Township took off at the beginning of the year and never looked back. Median Sold house values have continued to rise, even after the tax credit expired and though much of the inventory was sold off, more houses are now coming on the market.
Lyon is positioned well, out along a major East-West artery (I-96) and has been the hottest new-build community for the last few years. Lyon is likely the fastest growing community in the County. Things are good in Lyon township.
Now take a look at Highland Township, just six miles away; but those six miles are all north off the highway and much of the Highland market is north of M-59 a secondary East-West artery. The road to Highland from I-96 winds through the Village of Milford. There is no easy or quick way to get off I-96 and get to Highland.
In Oakland County most townships are squares that are 6 miles on a side. The Townships of Highland and South Lyon are separated by Milford Township, so they are only six miles apart from each other; however, they are worlds apart so far as the local real estate market goes. Look first at Lyon Township, which contains the city of South Lyon within it's borders.
The market in Lyon Township took off at the beginning of the year and never looked back. Median Sold house values have continued to rise, even after the tax credit expired and though much of the inventory was sold off, more houses are now coming on the market.
Lyon is positioned well, out along a major East-West artery (I-96) and has been the hottest new-build community for the last few years. Lyon is likely the fastest growing community in the County. Things are good in Lyon township.
Now take a look at Highland Township, just six miles away; but those six miles are all north off the highway and much of the Highland market is north of M-59 a secondary East-West artery. The road to Highland from I-96 winds through the Village of Milford. There is no easy or quick way to get off I-96 and get to Highland.
The market in Highland has been dropping, in terms of Median Sold Home Values for 3 years, with no end in sight. It actually perked up a bit at the beginning of the year, but the trend turned down again when the tax credit expired and Highland's cheaper houses were mostly sold off.
So, what do these two charts mean to you if you are looking to buy a home? Well, if you don't mind those extra six miles, there are great bargains to be had right now in the Highland market. The Lyon market will likely have less inventory and the prices will likely be less subject to negotiation. There are many more newer homes in Lyon (though you really can't tell that fromteh chart) than in surrounding communitires that have not had as much new-build activity lately and you are more liklely to find a newly built home there.
If you live in Highland and want to sell, it means that you need to be all that much more aggressive to attract buyers across those extra six miles. Not every buyer will need to get to I-96 to get to work. Indeed, many find M-59 to be the most convenient way to jobs in northern Oakland County and that is the buyer audience that you'll need to market to, in order to sell more quickly. If you are a seller in Lyon Twonship keep in mind that you will be competing against all of those new-build developments. Many new start homes, even in the same subdivision, are now using smaller and less expensive floor plans, in order to attract new customers. However, you should be able to take advantage of the hot Lyon market and sell faster and for a better price than in surrounding markets.
If you want to buy or sell in either of those markets, give me a call, I know them both. I live in MIlford Township, halfway between them.
Monday, July 5, 2010
How's the real estate market in Commerce, Michigan?
I guess the answer to the question about the market in Commerce, MI depends on whether you are a buyer or seller. Median sold home values have been on the increase since the beginning of the year (See chart), which more than anything else means that more expensive homes have been selling - good news for would-be sellers. Perhaps that is because most of the less expensive homes - foreclosures, short sales and HUD homes - sold off last year. The climb in median sold values did sort of plateau out in late June.
So far this year, 197 homes were sold in Commerce Township at an average sold price of $184,650 and a median sold price of $170,500. The average that sellers got per square foot was $85 and the average SEV multiplier was 1.5021. To see more of the year-to-date statistics about the market in Commerce and the surrounding area, go to http://www.movetomilford.com/ and click on the Local Real Estate Statistics choice and then click on What's sold in the area. You'll find all of the stats and charts at that site for for the six local markets that I track on a weekly basis.
Monday, June 28, 2010
What's goin' on - Milford
Hey, dad; what's goin' on? I always get that opening line when my son calls, which I take to be sort of the "Hey, how are you?" line of his younger generation. So I thought I'd post a few answers to that question over the next few days about what's goin' on in the real estate markets that I tend to focus upon and cover - starting with the Milford market.
What's going in on in Milford (Township and Village) is a continuation of the loss of value that we've been seeing for some time. There was a spike upward at the beginning of the year, driven by the first-time buyer tax credit; however once that ended the marker fizzled out. See the chart below to see the trends in both Median sold prices and the inventory on the market.
The Milford market rose a bit in Q2, but fell again when the tax credit expired. So far in 2010 there have been 78 houses sell in Milford Village and Township, with an average sale price of $184,911 and a median sale price of $188,200. Homes that sold averaged 122 Days on the Market (DOM).
What does this all mean? Is this good or bad? Well, it's not all good or bad. The good news is that prices have held up fairly well in the Milford market. The bad news is that they have held up because so few are selling, due to the high prices. Compared to surrounding markets, Milford prices took less of a hit, but Milford sellers also sold many fewer homes than sold in most surrounding markets. The Milford sold properties cost per square foot is higher than most surrounding markets and the sold price to SEV value ratio is higher. The days on market (DOM) average is a little higher in Milford that most surrounding markets, which means that it takes a while longer to sell.
To see all of the market charts and statistics for Milford and the surrounding markets, visit my Move to Milford web site and look for Real Estate Statistics. I track local sales on a weekly basis and have statistics on line for the local markets going back 3 years. Ther eis no better local place for good, solid, local real estate statistics.
What's going in on in Milford (Township and Village) is a continuation of the loss of value that we've been seeing for some time. There was a spike upward at the beginning of the year, driven by the first-time buyer tax credit; however once that ended the marker fizzled out. See the chart below to see the trends in both Median sold prices and the inventory on the market.
The Milford market rose a bit in Q2, but fell again when the tax credit expired. So far in 2010 there have been 78 houses sell in Milford Village and Township, with an average sale price of $184,911 and a median sale price of $188,200. Homes that sold averaged 122 Days on the Market (DOM).
What does this all mean? Is this good or bad? Well, it's not all good or bad. The good news is that prices have held up fairly well in the Milford market. The bad news is that they have held up because so few are selling, due to the high prices. Compared to surrounding markets, Milford prices took less of a hit, but Milford sellers also sold many fewer homes than sold in most surrounding markets. The Milford sold properties cost per square foot is higher than most surrounding markets and the sold price to SEV value ratio is higher. The days on market (DOM) average is a little higher in Milford that most surrounding markets, which means that it takes a while longer to sell.
To see all of the market charts and statistics for Milford and the surrounding markets, visit my Move to Milford web site and look for Real Estate Statistics. I track local sales on a weekly basis and have statistics on line for the local markets going back 3 years. Ther eis no better local place for good, solid, local real estate statistics.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
You make me sick...
No I'm not talking about you! I'm talking about your home.
Here's a link to a recent story on the IconCulture Web site that talks about how some people are actually made ill from toxins that are commonly in homes these days. There are lots and lots of things that we bring into our homes that can make us sick,from new carpeting to common household cleaning items.
The Iconoculture story points to a Web site called HealthyDwellings.com that has information about potential home health threats. The Healthy Dwellings folks sell a service to come into your home and survey it for toxins and other health hazards.
I'm not sure if we as a people are becoming more sensitive to chemical toxins or whether the products that we surround ourselves with have just become all that more toxic (witness the toxic drywall from China); but, for whatever reason, there seems to be much more illness that is being linked these days to stuff in our homes. Maybe the cave dwellers had it right all along.
Here's a link to a recent story on the IconCulture Web site that talks about how some people are actually made ill from toxins that are commonly in homes these days. There are lots and lots of things that we bring into our homes that can make us sick,from new carpeting to common household cleaning items.
The Iconoculture story points to a Web site called HealthyDwellings.com that has information about potential home health threats. The Healthy Dwellings folks sell a service to come into your home and survey it for toxins and other health hazards.
I'm not sure if we as a people are becoming more sensitive to chemical toxins or whether the products that we surround ourselves with have just become all that more toxic (witness the toxic drywall from China); but, for whatever reason, there seems to be much more illness that is being linked these days to stuff in our homes. Maybe the cave dwellers had it right all along.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
What's selling...
I've updated the local sold statistics for this week, so now you can go see what's selling in the area. Are sales down a bit compared to last year? How are houses in the $200-300K price band selling in this area? Is South Lyon selling better than Milford right5 now? How about Highland?The Answers to those questions and more can be found in the Real Estate Statistics sections of my Web sites - http://www.movetomilford.com/ and http://www.themilfordteam.com/ visit either one to find out the answers.
Those Web sites are the only places locally where you can find all of the latest sales data and up-to-date data for Y-T-D sales in Milford, Highland, White Lake, Commerce, Lyon and Brighton Townships, plus much more data and charts showing you the real estate trends in those markets.
Whether you are buying or thinking of selling, you need to understand what's going on in your market. And once you decide to sell, you'll want someone who is completely familiar with the local market to represent your house. Call me, I know this market and I'll do a great job for you selling your house.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
My world and welcome to it...
As I have done numerous times before, it is time to report on the mix in the local market here in my little corner of the world. Actually this is a report for a far bigger area than I normally concentrate upon, since these statistics were provided 
by my company - Real Estate One - and reflect the entire southeastern Michigan market.
by my company - Real Estate One - and reflect the entire southeastern Michigan market.The chart shows that almost 80% of the local market is still being drive by distressed sales or sale (leases really) that were caused mainly by distress (displaced homeowners looking for places to live after being foreclosed). In this are almost 50% of all listings are traditional homeowners trying to sell; however, only 21% of the sales are actually made from homes in that category.
As expected, the end of the first-time buyer tax credit had a dramatic impact on May sales which were down 30% over the March-April rate.
Price is still king in this market, with homes that were well priced selling quickly and those that were not languishing on the market until they have been reduced one of more times. An example is in the under $100K market, well priced houses that never needed a price reduction sold with an average DOM of 52 days. Those that required one or more price reductions averaged 155 days on market. At the upper end, houses over $400K that were well priced sold in an average of 158 days and those that started out overpriced were over a year on the market at 373 DOM.
So, we're not out of the woods yet. In fact we can't really even see the edge of the woods yet. The little clearing that we thought we saw in March and April was an illusion. So far the HARP/HAMP/HAFA programs have been a big disappointment; as the banks continue to play games with short sales and prefer to foreclose, rather than work with distressed homeowners. Next, we're awaiting the long anticipated dump of the "shadow inventory" of foreclosed properties onto the market by stressed out banks.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
To find the answers, look in the right places
How do sales this year compare to past years? Where can you find out what's sold in your area? What's the trend, if any in sales of distressed houses - foreclosed or short sales? What's the average percentage of sale price as compared to asking price min my area? How do the current SEV values equate to the sale prices in this area? What's the average cost per square foot of homes that have sold in this area?
Those are all valid questions to seek answer s to, if you are looking for a house or if you plan to try to sell a house. But, where are you going to find the answers?
If you happen to be looking (or looking to sell) in the 6 townships that I focus upon in southeastern Michigan, you can find those answers here. I take the time each week to update the statistics that I keep about sales in Milford, Highland, Commerce, White Lake, Lyon and Brighton Townships in Oakland and Livingston Counties. My Move to Milford Web site has those statistics and much more information and data and charts about the markets in those areas.
If you happen to be thinking of moving into the Milford area, I know of no better place to go for information about the Village of Milford and surrounding communities. If it's something about Milford or something going on in Milford, it's probably somewhere on this site.
So visit my Move to Milford site for all of those answers and more. You can also get to the same information off my Milford Team Web site. For first-time buyers, I have a special Web site just for you that has lots of helpful information to make your first home buying experience easier and hopefully better - MI Home Buyers. You can search for homes on any of these sites.
And for those who unfortunately find themselves between a rock and a hard place, I have a MI Short Sales site with information about the short sale and foreclosure processes. Foreclosures have dropped dramatically as a percentage of sales; however, short sales now make up a large percentage of the distressed sales. This site has information about the Federal programs for distressed homeowners, as well as helpful information for those who need to throw in the towel.
Those are all valid questions to seek answer s to, if you are looking for a house or if you plan to try to sell a house. But, where are you going to find the answers?
If you happen to be looking (or looking to sell) in the 6 townships that I focus upon in southeastern Michigan, you can find those answers here. I take the time each week to update the statistics that I keep about sales in Milford, Highland, Commerce, White Lake, Lyon and Brighton Townships in Oakland and Livingston Counties. My Move to Milford Web site has those statistics and much more information and data and charts about the markets in those areas.
If you happen to be thinking of moving into the Milford area, I know of no better place to go for information about the Village of Milford and surrounding communities. If it's something about Milford or something going on in Milford, it's probably somewhere on this site.
So visit my Move to Milford site for all of those answers and more. You can also get to the same information off my Milford Team Web site. For first-time buyers, I have a special Web site just for you that has lots of helpful information to make your first home buying experience easier and hopefully better - MI Home Buyers. You can search for homes on any of these sites.
And for those who unfortunately find themselves between a rock and a hard place, I have a MI Short Sales site with information about the short sale and foreclosure processes. Foreclosures have dropped dramatically as a percentage of sales; however, short sales now make up a large percentage of the distressed sales. This site has information about the Federal programs for distressed homeowners, as well as helpful information for those who need to throw in the towel.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Mortgage Reform Could Actually Hurt Veterans...
Republished with permission from the arthor...
Memorial Day — established to honor the men and women who have fought and died for our country — is upon us once again. But this year there are more reasons to speak out for veterans and military persons, as their VA Home Loan benefits may be in danger.
Officially proclaimed on May 5, 1868, Memorial Day is a holiday that has grown to be nationally recognized. Some of the first tributes to those who have fallen began with small tokens of respect, such as women’s groups in the South painting the gravestones of those who died in duty. Following its first observance on May 30, 1868, traditions such as community parades and ceremonious Flag raisings began to take place and still do today.
Celebrating the devotion and commitment of military members one weekend a year is a small tribute to their service, which is one reason the Department of Veterans Affairs decided to create the VA Loan Guaranty in 1944. Yet another way to thank those who served, the VA Home Loan has benefits available only to Veterans and military members. It allows many to become homeowners while 8-10 of Veterans and those who serve would not qualify for a conventional loan because of its stricter guidelines.
The national observance of Memorial Day has weakened tremendously over the years; the change in the holiday from a single day to a three-day weekend has given people the opportunity to forget the meaning and focus on vacations and time off from work instead. Add to this the Financial Services bill that is making its way through Congress, which has the potential to harm the VA Home Loan program and its less strict qualifications.
The bill itself is intended to help buyers: the sketchy loans of the past would be no more, meaning a closer-eye on the mortgage industry and increased consumer protection. However, an amendment made by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) calls for stricter underwriting and verification guidelines for all loan programs, including the VA Loan Guaranty program. Obviously this amendment is also meant to protect consumers, but that is exactly what the VA Loan program already does.
VA Loan borrowers will wind up wasting a lot of their time going through the underwriting and verification processes, and in the end, those who do qualify will spend more money on lending costs. Here is proof that the VA program is safe: among the other loan programs, the VA has the lowest percentage of foreclosures at 2.46% compared to Prime at 3.31%, FHA at 3.57% and Subprime at 15.58%.
There is no problem with the VA Loan Guaranty; therefore there is nothing to be fixed. Even though this bill is meant to help consumers, what it will do is hurt the chances of purchasing a home for many military men and women. It is important that we recognize what our military does for us — we need to speak up and fight for their rights as they fight for ours. Contact an elected official here U.S. Senate and the House and tell him or her how important it is to keep the VA Loan Guaranty program as it is.
Memorial Day — established to honor the men and women who have fought and died for our country — is upon us once again. But this year there are more reasons to speak out for veterans and military persons, as their VA Home Loan benefits may be in danger.
Officially proclaimed on May 5, 1868, Memorial Day is a holiday that has grown to be nationally recognized. Some of the first tributes to those who have fallen began with small tokens of respect, such as women’s groups in the South painting the gravestones of those who died in duty. Following its first observance on May 30, 1868, traditions such as community parades and ceremonious Flag raisings began to take place and still do today.
Celebrating the devotion and commitment of military members one weekend a year is a small tribute to their service, which is one reason the Department of Veterans Affairs decided to create the VA Loan Guaranty in 1944. Yet another way to thank those who served, the VA Home Loan has benefits available only to Veterans and military members. It allows many to become homeowners while 8-10 of Veterans and those who serve would not qualify for a conventional loan because of its stricter guidelines.
The national observance of Memorial Day has weakened tremendously over the years; the change in the holiday from a single day to a three-day weekend has given people the opportunity to forget the meaning and focus on vacations and time off from work instead. Add to this the Financial Services bill that is making its way through Congress, which has the potential to harm the VA Home Loan program and its less strict qualifications.
The bill itself is intended to help buyers: the sketchy loans of the past would be no more, meaning a closer-eye on the mortgage industry and increased consumer protection. However, an amendment made by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) calls for stricter underwriting and verification guidelines for all loan programs, including the VA Loan Guaranty program. Obviously this amendment is also meant to protect consumers, but that is exactly what the VA Loan program already does.
VA Loan borrowers will wind up wasting a lot of their time going through the underwriting and verification processes, and in the end, those who do qualify will spend more money on lending costs. Here is proof that the VA program is safe: among the other loan programs, the VA has the lowest percentage of foreclosures at 2.46% compared to Prime at 3.31%, FHA at 3.57% and Subprime at 15.58%.
There is no problem with the VA Loan Guaranty; therefore there is nothing to be fixed. Even though this bill is meant to help consumers, what it will do is hurt the chances of purchasing a home for many military men and women. It is important that we recognize what our military does for us — we need to speak up and fight for their rights as they fight for ours. Contact an elected official here U.S. Senate and the House and tell him or her how important it is to keep the VA Loan Guaranty program as it is.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Oh No! I sold all of my houses!
Oh, my. What a happy problem to have - I sold all of my listings in April and May and now I need more homes to list.
April was crazy, as people rushed to beat the April 30 deadline to have houses under contract in order to get the home buyer tax credit.
Surprisingly the momentum carries over to the first part of May and I ended up selling all of my listings.
Now I need more homes to sell.
The inventory is very low right now and there are still people out looking for new homes, so give me a call and let me do a Market Analysis of what you hoe might be worth on today's market. The Market Analysis is free and the advice that you'll get just might be priceless. Call today!
April was crazy, as people rushed to beat the April 30 deadline to have houses under contract in order to get the home buyer tax credit.
Surprisingly the momentum carries over to the first part of May and I ended up selling all of my listings.
Now I need more homes to sell.
The inventory is very low right now and there are still people out looking for new homes, so give me a call and let me do a Market Analysis of what you hoe might be worth on today's market. The Market Analysis is free and the advice that you'll get just might be priceless. Call today!
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Everyboby's talkin about it...
And not one knows what they're talkin about...
We're talkin about the housing bust. Is it over? Have we reached bottom? Is the recovery under way? Are the banks about to loose a tsunami of foreclosed "shadow inventory"? Are short sales the way to go? Are short sales dead? Should you sell now or wait? Should you buy now or wait? What the heck is going on?
The truth is that no one knows. Pundits in various parts of the country look at what they can see in their area and make calls about the market. National pundits make national calls and then back off with local caveats. In our area the local market was up significantly in March and April, but the pundits are saying - watch out, it was all an illusion, caused by people rushing to beat the tax rebate deadline. Michigan is still a depressed market with hoe values that continue to fall...unless of course you happen to be in one of the areas where they have stared to rise again.
It's all quite maddening, sort of like watching a Tim Burton movie. This index is up, but that one is down. Consumers are more confident, but not about housing. Mortgage rates are at historic lows, but you can't get a mortgage. Somebody tell Joseph Heller about this Catch-22 market. Maybe he is in Washington these days, writing new HARP/HAFA/HAHA rules...or maybe it just seems that way.
In any event, should you get stuck with someone at a cocktail party (do they still have those these days...maybe a wine tasting party) who asks if you think the housing market is recovering or still going down...just say YES. Whichever view that person holds has at least a 50% chance to be wrong and you can easy provide proof of the opposite point of view. I don't play that game anymore. My stock answer these days is that "it's too early to tell." if pressed for when we'll know for sure if this was the turning point year in the housing crisis, I reply, "In about 4-5 years."
We're talkin about the housing bust. Is it over? Have we reached bottom? Is the recovery under way? Are the banks about to loose a tsunami of foreclosed "shadow inventory"? Are short sales the way to go? Are short sales dead? Should you sell now or wait? Should you buy now or wait? What the heck is going on?
The truth is that no one knows. Pundits in various parts of the country look at what they can see in their area and make calls about the market. National pundits make national calls and then back off with local caveats. In our area the local market was up significantly in March and April, but the pundits are saying - watch out, it was all an illusion, caused by people rushing to beat the tax rebate deadline. Michigan is still a depressed market with hoe values that continue to fall...unless of course you happen to be in one of the areas where they have stared to rise again.
It's all quite maddening, sort of like watching a Tim Burton movie. This index is up, but that one is down. Consumers are more confident, but not about housing. Mortgage rates are at historic lows, but you can't get a mortgage. Somebody tell Joseph Heller about this Catch-22 market. Maybe he is in Washington these days, writing new HARP/HAFA/HAHA rules...or maybe it just seems that way.
In any event, should you get stuck with someone at a cocktail party (do they still have those these days...maybe a wine tasting party) who asks if you think the housing market is recovering or still going down...just say YES. Whichever view that person holds has at least a 50% chance to be wrong and you can easy provide proof of the opposite point of view. I don't play that game anymore. My stock answer these days is that "it's too early to tell." if pressed for when we'll know for sure if this was the turning point year in the housing crisis, I reply, "In about 4-5 years."
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Stop the aging process - keep learning
“I’ve learned that I still have a lot to learn.” (Maya Angelou) from the Jack's Winning Words blog, one of my favorite sources for quotes. Not only have I learned that, but I've figured out that if I never stop learning, I'll never really get old. At least that;s the way I see it. So, keep discovering and learning and stop the aging process.
Monday, April 26, 2010
You can't be beat if you don't quit...
Today's saying from Jack's Winning Words, my favorite source for thought provoking quotes is from Babe Ruth, who said “It’s hard to beat a person who never gives up.” I'd say it's also hard to beat down a person who never gives up and life certainly triers to beat us all down from time to time.
In my real estate business, when I'm talking to potential listing candidates; I stress that they have to be a partner in the marketing process and that they must have a commitment to the 3-P's - Price, Patience and Persistence. The price point is fairly obvious - the place needs to be priced to the market or it just will not sell. And prices need to be reviewed and adjusted as needed to match an every changing market.
The patience that is required is often well beyond the seller's initial expectations. I'm selling in a market that is averaging over 200 days on market - averaging.That means that a significant portion of the market is above that average. I generally set the expectation that it will take 12-18 months to sell in this market, if the house is above the $250,000 price level. If it is above $400,000 it will be 18-30 months in our area. It's been that way for about 2 years now, with little sign of letting up, yet. Lack of patience is one of the leading causes of agent change in our business. If you have a good agent - one who is doing all of the right things to market the house - then be patient and let them work for you. That work and your patience will eventually pay off.
The persistence component is maintaining that day-to-day routine of getting the house ready to show, everyday and at all hours. That is especially hard in homes with small children and sometimes those with pets. There is a real discipline required to do what is required before leaving for work everyday or to be ready for the 1/2 hour fire drill to get the place ready when the showing appointment call comes in. That requires persistence - a commitment not to give up.
So, maybe sometimes you feel like that inflatable punching bag with the weight at the bottom (one of my grand children's favorite toys when they visit). Maybe you feel like everyone and everything just wants to take a swing and knock you down. But you know what - it always pops back up and at the end of the day it's still standing. It was never beat because it never quit popping back up, ready to go at it again.
In my real estate business, when I'm talking to potential listing candidates; I stress that they have to be a partner in the marketing process and that they must have a commitment to the 3-P's - Price, Patience and Persistence. The price point is fairly obvious - the place needs to be priced to the market or it just will not sell. And prices need to be reviewed and adjusted as needed to match an every changing market.
The patience that is required is often well beyond the seller's initial expectations. I'm selling in a market that is averaging over 200 days on market - averaging.That means that a significant portion of the market is above that average. I generally set the expectation that it will take 12-18 months to sell in this market, if the house is above the $250,000 price level. If it is above $400,000 it will be 18-30 months in our area. It's been that way for about 2 years now, with little sign of letting up, yet. Lack of patience is one of the leading causes of agent change in our business. If you have a good agent - one who is doing all of the right things to market the house - then be patient and let them work for you. That work and your patience will eventually pay off.
The persistence component is maintaining that day-to-day routine of getting the house ready to show, everyday and at all hours. That is especially hard in homes with small children and sometimes those with pets. There is a real discipline required to do what is required before leaving for work everyday or to be ready for the 1/2 hour fire drill to get the place ready when the showing appointment call comes in. That requires persistence - a commitment not to give up.
So, maybe sometimes you feel like that inflatable punching bag with the weight at the bottom (one of my grand children's favorite toys when they visit). Maybe you feel like everyone and everything just wants to take a swing and knock you down. But you know what - it always pops back up and at the end of the day it's still standing. It was never beat because it never quit popping back up, ready to go at it again.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Mixed messages from the local market…
Everyone, including me a few times in this very forum, has been trying to call the bottom of the real estate market. We search for any consistent sign that things have bottomed out or stabilized and may be headed back up. There is anecdotal evidence from appraisers in the area that prices have stabilized a bit…at least in some markets.That’s the maddening thing. All real estate is local and the various local markets are all over the map.. Just take a look at the charts that I keep on my Milford Team web site to see what I mean - http://www.themilfordteam.com/Local_Market_Charts.html
As you will see, Median sold home values in Milford is up – Yea! But Highland Twp. Continues to be in a home value free fall – Boo! Commerce is up, but White Lake has turned down again, after a brief up-tick. Brighton too had its upward turn, but fell back into a decline. Lyon seems to be a bright spot with a sustained upward swing over the last month or more.
Inventory continues to fall in every market but Brighton where it has been up for a couple of weeks. Lyon too is about to turn positive (more homes being listed than have sold) on inventory.
One bright spot is the Days on Market statistic which appears to have peaked in March and is headed back down across the board. That may well be a temporary thing as last-minute first time home buyers scoop up anything that they can afford as soon as it comes on the market.
So, what does this all mean? Maybe it mans very little, since the market is currently being skewed by the rush to cash in on tax breaks. We shall see what happens when the tax credit deadline passes on April 30th. What we still aren’t seeing are consistent listings and sales in the mid-range houses – those “move-up” houses between about $250 – 400K that used to be the backbone of the market. That segment appears to still be frozen in this area with many houses that used to be in that price range now selling as foreclosures or short sales.
Speaking of short sales, we are starting to see somewhat better behavior and performance by the banks in dealing with short sales. It isn’t taking months to get an answer on offers like it used to, but there are still “problem banks” that just don’t seem to have their acts together.
I’ll report back in May on what happens to the market when the tax break ends. Right now first time buyers make up over 50% of the buyers in the market, with investors and people looking to lease making up another 25% or so. That doesn’t leave a lot of traditional move up buyers in market.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
I've been away for a while...
Any long-time readers of this blog, and I have no idea if there are really any, have noticed that I've been away for quite a while. I haven't been posting for about a month. That's because I decided to embark on a new career away from Real estate. Actually it would be a mis-statement to really call it a new career, since I had 30+ years of IT sales prior to my last 8-9 years as a real estate salesman. I suppose it would be more accurate to say that I've returned to those roots. I've taken a job as a salesman for the local Xerox Agent - the Digital Document Store. I will be selling Xerox products and services in this area.
I intend to keep my real estate license active and to refocus primarily onto listings in real estate, rather than soliciting buyers. I will still deal with buyers, as opportunities come up,but I'll focus my active solicitation for new business in real estate on sellers. I'm also going to try to be very conscience of the level of service that I'm able to give listing clients - I'm not willing to compromise on what services that I would give a client, if I did not have another job.
So stay tuned and we'll see together how this new "dual-career" thing works out. Wearing two hats is something new for me. Since I have railed int eh past about this very topic, it would be hypocritical of me not to acknowledge now that I never thoguht that this was a good idea. We shall see if I was right then or if I'm right now to give it a try.
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