Looking for the rainbow

Sometimes it's hard in the midst of a storm to think about or look for the rainbow that you know will be there soon. But you know that there is a good chance that there will be a rainbow after the storm. We're in a real estate storm in Michigan right now, but the hint of the rainbow to come may already be there, at least I hope that's what I'm seeing.

Most of the news stories that you hear and see these days are all based upon trailing indicators - things that are caused by other things that took place some time ago. The tremendous rise in the number of foreclosures, for instance started at least six months ago, sometimes longer. It takes that long for the foreclosure process to play out in Michigan; so, the foreclosed homes entering the market now were in trouble back in the spring. It's just now that we're seeing them come onto the re-sale market at tremendously marked-down prices. So, they are hurting the regular sales some.

I've been looking for hints of the rainbow at the end of this storm and I think I've spotted a couple of leading indicators, or perhaps I just want to believe that I have. These are small things than may portend a better, more balanced market ahead. One is the number of fliers that are all of a sudden being taken at my homes. The increase isn't due to kids or neighbors in most cases, since I have some homes that are in fairly far out places. And the homes that have had increased flyer activity are in the $300-400 price range, which has been practically dead this year. I also have seen a slight uptick in showings lately; some of which I attribute to finally getting their prices right, but some again in that $300-400K band that has been quiet all summer.

The Web traffic on these homes has been fair consistent and may even be down a bit this last month, but perhaps that's because people are finally getting out from behind their computer screens and going to actually see the homes. I will admit that Open House traffic has been down for the last 2-3 months, but I attribute a lot of that to most people having better things to do on Sunday afternoons. We lost the tire kickers to Sunday picnics or other activities and a lot to vacations.

My wife jokes that she was always the Pollyanna in her family and perhaps some of that has rubbed off on me. I prefer to think that I have somehow discerned the coming rainbow amidst the current storm clouds. I'm certainly still cautioning sellers to hang on for the long run and be patient, but now at least we can discuss some indicators that are positive and together look for the rainbow after the current storm.